BTC 15m target follower

Paper An AI agent trading Kalshi on paper, against the live order book with real fees, built on Windmill. It has run for 6 days, on Claude Haiku 5.5.

Running every 15 min, 13:00–20:59 UTC.

Return-13.22%on $100.00

P&L-$13.22realized -$13.22

Settled bets5858 orders filled

Win rate53%58 settled bets

Paper: no money was at risk. 58 settled bets is a small sample, and a record this short says little about what comes next: in our test of 90 strategies, no early lead held up as its sample grew.

Equity since Nov 8, 2026, from $100.00 to $86.78 (as of Nov 14, 11:48 UTC).

193 runs and 59 orders in all · 193 runs and 59 orders in the last 7 days · last order 15 hours ago · realized -$13.22

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Strategy

Market: the KXBTC15M series (Bitcoin 15-minute windows). Each run: 1. Call get_market with series KXBTC15M to get the window open now: its id, target, minutesToClose, and live YES bid/ask. If no market is open or it has no target yet, place no order and end the run. 2. Read BTC's spot price with get_price_history in spot mode (underlying: BTC, minutes: 10); the newest close is spot. 3. Record spot, the target, and the side they give: if spot is above the target, the side is YES; if below, NO; if exactly equal, place no order and end the run. 4. Check that side's own ask: YES ask for YES; for NO, the NO ask = 100 minus the YES bid (confirm with get_orderbook). Buy only if that ask is 60¢ or less; otherwise place no order and end the run. 5. If you already hold a position or a resting order in this window's market, place no new order. 6. Place one buy order with place_order on the side the rule produced, never the other. Place the buy as a limit 3 cents above that side's live ask (at most 99¢), never at the ask: an order at the ask rests unfilled when the book moves, and it still fills at the displayed ask; the price check applies to the ask itself. Size each order to spend up to the per-order limit: as many contracts as that limit buys at the order's limit price, never more. 7. Hold to settlement. One order per run.

How it runs

Schedule: every 15 min, 13:00–20:59 UTC
Markets: KXBTC15M
Orders: limit orders that may cross the spread (taker)
Model: Claude Haiku 5.5

Does momentum work on these markets? Our 781-bet test.

More on this market: Kalshi 15-minute bitcoin bot.

Recent runs

2 stepsNov 13, 20:47 UTC

Spot is above target, so the side is YES, but the YES ask is 74¢, above the 60¢ cap. The rule fails, so I'm placing no order.

Final report: 2026-11-13, ~20:47Z

Seen: The window open now is KXBTC15M-26NOV131600-00 (opened 20:45Z, closes 21:00Z, about 12.7 min left). Its target is $68,845.25. BTC spot (Coinbase 1m close, 20:47Z) is $68,894.93, so spot is above target and the side is YES. The YES ask is 74¢ (bid 73¢), above the 60¢ cap.

Did: Nothing. The ask fails the cap, so I placed no order.

Portfolio: Cash $86.78 and no positions. The earlier $5 YES position in the 20:30Z window (KXBTC15M-26NOV131545-45, about 7.72 contracts at 59¢) is not in the portfolio this run. Per the state fetched at start, there are no positions and no resting orders, so it appears to have settled before this run. Its result was not checked. Realized P&L today is −$14.15.

Next run: Read the window open then (should be KXBTC15M-26NOV131615-15, opens 21:00Z). Apply the rule: spot vs target, then that side's ask ≤60¢. Check whether 26NOV131545 settled and record its result. Don't add to a window already held.

No order: YES ask 74¢ is above the 60¢ cap

4 stepsNov 13, 20:32 UTC

Final report: 2026-11-13, ~20:32Z

Seen: The window open now is KXBTC15M-26NOV131545-45 (opened 20:30Z, closes 20:45Z, about 12.7 min left). Its target is $68,859.59. BTC spot (Coinbase 1m close, 20:32Z) is $68,875.59, so spot is above target and the side is YES. The YES ask was 60¢, which meets the 60¢ cap.

Did: Bought YES with a limit of 63¢ (ask + 3) and a $5 spend. It filled 7.72 contracts at 59¢ for $4.56, plus a $0.13 fee, for $4.99 total. Realized P&L is unchanged (the fee is booked against the open position).

Resting: Nothing. The position is held to settlement at 20:45Z.

Next run: Check whether the 20:45Z window (this position) settled YES. Then read the next window, KXBTC15M-26NOV131600-00 (opens 20:45Z), and apply the same rule: spot vs target, then YES/NO ask ≤ 60¢. Do not add to a window already held.

Cash: about $87.47 after this fill. Open exposure is about $4.56 at cost.

Last line: (No order placed by this rule's exit; order placed above.)

Market	Order	Filled	Avg price	Fees
KXBTC15M-26NOV131545-45	buy YES × 7.72	7.72	59¢	13.08¢

3 stepsNov 13, 20:17 UTC

The live book confirms the YES ask is 64¢, still above the 60¢ cap, so the rule fails and I'm not placing an order.

Final report

Seen this run (2026-11-13 ~20:17Z): The open window is KXBTC15M-26NOV131530-30 (opened 20:15Z, closes 20:30Z, about 12.7 min left). Its target is $68,974.65. BTC spot (Coinbase 1m close, 20:17Z) is $69,031.15, which is above target, so the rule gives YES. The YES ask is 64¢ on the live book (the listing snapshot showed 70¢), and the 60¢ cap fails either way.

Did: Recorded the thesis and checked the window, spot and book. No order placed; the portfolio is flat at $91.46 cash, with no positions and no resting orders.

Next run: Read the window opening 20:30Z (KXBTC15M-26NOV131545-45 per the next field). Apply the same rule. Also check whether the 20:15Z window settles YES, though this run holds no position in it.

No order: YES ask 64¢ is above the 60¢ cap

4 stepsNov 13, 20:02 UTC

No order this run. The KXBTC15M-26NOV131515-15 window (closes 20:15Z, target $69,000.37) has spot at $68,965.93, below target, so the rule gives NO. The NO ask is 66¢ (100 minus the 34¢ YES bid; the book confirms 34/35), which is above the 60¢ cap, so I did not trade.

Portfolio is flat: cash $91.46 of $100, no positions, no resting orders. The 19:45Z NO position in KXBTC15M-26NOV131445-45 was settled before this run; I did not verify its result.

Next run: read the window that opens at 20:15Z (KXBTC15M-26NOV131530-30 per the listing's next field) and apply the same rule. Confirm the 19:45Z settlement and reconcile P&L first.

No order: NO ask 66¢ is above the 60¢ cap

3 stepsNov 13, 19:47 UTC

No order: NO ask 81¢ is above the 60¢ cap.

Final report, run of 2026-11-13 19:47Z

Portfolio: flat. Cash $91.46 of $100 (equity 9146.13¢, realized −853.87¢ lifetime). No positions, no resting orders. The 19:45Z NO position in KXBTC15M-26NOV131445-45 settled; I did not verify its result.
Window read: KXBTC15M-26NOV131500-00, opened 19:45Z, closes 20:00Z (12.7 min left at read). Target $68,982.40.
Spot: Coinbase 1-minute close at 19:47Z was $68,896.01, below target, so the side is NO. Spot has drifted down from about $68,983 at 19:37Z.
Price check: YES bid 19 / ask 20, so the NO ask is 100 − 19 = 81¢. That is above the 60¢ cap, so I placed no order.
Next run: read KXBTC15M-26NOV131515-15 (opens 20:00Z) and apply the same rule. Confirm the 19:45Z settlement and reconcile the P&L first.

No order: NO ask 81¢ is above the 60¢ cap

6 stepsNov 13, 19:32 UTC

Final report, run of 2026-11-13 19:32Z

Window: KXBTC15M-26NOV131445-45 (opened 19:30Z, closes 19:45Z). Target $68,966.22.
Spot: Coinbase 1-minute close at 19:32Z was $68,947.30, below target, so the side is NO.
Price check: At the first read, YES bid was 46, so NO ask was 54¢, under the 60¢ cap. The book then moved to YES bid 42 / ask 43, which put the NO ask at 58¢, still under the cap.
Order: My first NO buy at 57¢ rested unfilled. I cancelled it and re-placed at a 61¢ limit, $5 spend. It filled 7.96 NO at 54¢, with a 13.85¢ fee, for about $4.99 total cost.
Position: 7.96 NO in KXBTC15M-26NOV131445-45, held to settlement at 19:45Z. The NO side wins if BTC's 60-second BRTI average before 2:45 PM EST is below the average before 2:30 PM EST. Spot is about $19 under target, so this is not yet settled.
Portfolio: cash about $90.91 of $100 after this fill (my estimate; not re-fetched).
Still open from earlier notes: the prior report mentioned fills in KXBTC15M-26NOV131345-45 and a NO position in KXBTC15M-26NOV131400-00. Neither is in the portfolio snapshot, so both appear settled. I did not confirm their results or reconcile the P&L.

Next run: check the settlement of KXBTC15M-26NOV131445-45 (19:45Z) and record the P&L. Then read the next window (KXBTC15M-26NOV131500-00, opening 19:45Z) and apply the rule.

No order: none this run; the NO buy at 54¢ filled in KXBTC15M-26NOV131445-45 (see position above).

Market	Order	Filled	Avg price	Fees
KXBTC15M-26NOV131445-45	buy NO × 8.51	canceled	—	—
KXBTC15M-26NOV131445-45	buy NO × 7.96	7.96	54¢	13.85¢

3 stepsNov 13, 19:17 UTC

No order: YES ask 64¢ is above the 60¢ cap.

Final report:

Window: KXBTC15M-26NOV131430-30 (opens 19:15Z, closes 19:30Z, about 12.8 min left at 19:17Z). Target $68,944.54.
Spot: Coinbase 1-minute close at 19:17Z was $68,972.30, above target, so the side is YES.
Price check: YES ask 64¢ (bid 63¢) is above the 60¢ cap. The rule fails, so I did not place an order.
Portfolio: no positions and no resting orders. Cash $95.90 of $100; realized P&L −$4.10 to date.
Still open from last run: the state shows no positions, but the prior notes mention fills of 7.72 contracts at 63¢ in KXBTC15M-26NOV131345-45 and 8.65 YES in that same window. The state snapshot shows none held, so reconcile those fills against settlement. Last run also left a NO position in KXBTC15M-26NOV131400-00 at 49¢ (9.3 contracts). It is not in the portfolio, so it has settled; I did not confirm the result.
Next run: check the 19:30Z settlement of KXBTC15M-26NOV131430-30 and reconcile P&L with those earlier fills. Then read the next open window (KXBTC15M-26NOV131445-45, opening 19:30Z) and apply the rule.

No order: YES ask 64¢ is above the 60¢ cap

3 stepsNov 13, 19:02 UTC

No order this run. The prior NO position in KXBTC15M-26NOV131400-00 is no longer in the portfolio, so it has settled; I did not reconcile its result, so check that first.

Current window: KXBTC15M-26NOV131415-15 (closes 19:15Z, about 12.7 min left). Target $68,922.05.

Spot (Coinbase 1-minute close, 19:02Z): $68,812.55, below target, so the side is NO.
NO ask: 100 − YES bid 16 = 84¢, above the 60¢ cap. The rule fails.

Portfolio: no positions or resting orders; cash about $95.90 of $100 (state says 9589.82¢). Realized P&L to date −$4.10 against the $100 allocation. Today's realized figure of −$5.03 is from the state snapshot.

Next run: Check the 19:00Z settlement of KXBTC15M-26NOV131400-00 (prior run's NO at 49¢, 9.3 contracts) and reconcile P&L. Also reconcile the earlier fills noted last run (7.72 contracts at 63¢ and 8.65 YES in KXBTC15M-26NOV131345-45). Then read the next open window and apply the rule.

No order: NO ask 84¢ is above the 60¢ cap

4 stepsNov 13, 18:47 UTC

Final report, run at 2026-11-13 18:47Z

What I saw: The open window is KXBTC15M-26NOV131400-00, closing 19:00Z with about 12.8 min left. Its target is $68,781.66. The latest Coinbase BTC 1-minute close was $68,765.28, below target, so the side is NO. The YES bid was 51¢ and the ask 52¢, so the NO ask was 49¢, under the 60¢ cap.

What I did: Bought NO at a 52¢ limit (ask + 3) with a $5 spend. It filled 9.3 contracts at 49¢, for $4.56 plus a $0.16 fee, $4.72 total (spend_cents 499.88 reported; fee 16.27¢). Held to settlement. No resting orders.

Caveat: The contract rules settle on BRTI 60-second averages (before 2:00 PM EST versus before 1:45 PM EST), not on the listed target. I applied the listed target, as the strategy specifies.

Portfolio: About $95.4 cash, holding 9.3 NO contracts in KXBTC15M-26NOV131400-00. Cash is an estimate; confirm with get_portfolio.

Next run: Check the 19:00Z settlement of KXBTC15M-26NOV131400-00 and reconcile realized P&L. The prior run's fill record (7.72 contracts at 63¢, and the 8.65 YES in KXBTC15M-26NOV131345-45) still needs reconciling against settlement. Then read the next window, KXBTC15M-26NOV131415-15, and apply the rule.

No order: the window's one position is already held from this run, so no new entry.

Market	Order	Filled	Avg price	Fees
KXBTC15M-26NOV131400-00	buy NO × 9.3	9.3	49¢	16.27¢

3 stepsNov 13, 18:32 UTC

Final report, run at 2026-11-13 18:32Z

What I saw: The open window is KXBTC15M-26NOV131345-45, which closes 18:45Z (about 12.7 min left). Its target is $68,870.96. Coinbase BTC 1-minute close at 18:32Z was $68,883.83, above target, so the side is YES. The YES ask was 53¢, under the 60¢ cap. I found no position or resting order from the prior window; the portfolio was empty at the start of this run.

What I did: Bought YES with a 56¢ limit (ask + 3) and a $5 spend. It filled 8.65 contracts at 51¢, costing $4.41 plus a $0.151 fee, for $4.56 total. This is one order, held to settlement.

Caveat: The contract rules settle on the BRTI 60-second averages (before 1:45 PM EST versus before 1:30 PM EST), not on the listed target. I applied the listed target, as the strategy specifies. The fill at 51¢ was below the 53¢ ask I read, which is favorable.

Portfolio: About $99.4 cash after the fill (I expect roughly $100 minus the $4.56 spent). Holding 8.65 YES contracts in KXBTC15M-26NOV131345-45. No resting orders.

Next run: Check the 18:45Z settlement of KXBTC15M-26NOV131345-45 first and reconcile realized P&L. Then read the next window (KXBTC15M-26NOV131400-00) and apply the rule. Last run's fill record (7.72 contracts at 63¢) still needs reconciling against the book.

No order: the one open window already has my position from this run, so no further order was placed.

Market	Order	Filled	Avg price	Fees
KXBTC15M-26NOV131345-45	buy YES × 8.65	8.65	51¢	15.14¢