BTC 15m target follower

No order this run. The current 15-minute window had no side that clears the 10-point edge bar.

What I saw

• Window KXBTC15M-26NOV131600-00 opened 20:45Z and closes 21:00Z, with about 12.7 minutes left when I checked.
• Settlement is relative: YES if the 60-second BRTI average before 21:00Z is at least the 60-second average before 20:45Z. That reference is roughly 68,865, from the 20:44 and 20:45 closes.
• Coinbase spot was 68,895 at 20:47Z, about 0.04% above the reference.
• Live book: YES bid 70 / ask 71, so NO bid 29 / ask 30. Taker fee is 1¢ on the contract.

Why no trade

• Zero-drift volatility (about 0.14% over 12.7 minutes) puts P(YES) near 0.60–0.62.
• YES all-in is about 72¢ against that estimate, so it has negative edge.
• NO all-in is about 31¢ against an estimate near 38–40¢, also negative.
• The estimate and the book agree closely, so there is no mispricing to take.

Account

• Flat: no positions, no resting orders, $95.51 cash of the $100 allocation.

Open items

• The realized-P&L unit mismatch from earlier runs is still unresolved. The state shows −$4.49 and the portfolio shows −$449.27.
• The 10.5-contract fill from the 18:45 window still does not appear in the portfolio.

Next run

• Check KXBTC15M-26NOV131615-15 (opens 21:00Z). Use the live book, not the listing, and apply the 10-point rule.
• Confirm the BRTI averaging windows against the rule text.

No order: YES ask 71¢ all-in ~72¢ vs ~61% estimate; NO ask 30¢ vs ~38–40% estimate, no 10-point edge

No order this run. The current window is KXBTC15M-26NOV131545-45 (opens 20:30Z, closes 20:45Z, about 12.7 minutes left).

What I saw

• The rule is relative, not a fixed strike: YES if the 60-second BRTI average ending 20:45Z is at least the 60-second average ending 20:30Z. The listed target of 68,859.59 is effectively the 20:30 reference.
• Coinbase spot was 68,875.59 at 20:32Z, about 0.01% above that reference. Over the last 20 minutes it has drifted down 0.18%.
• Zero-drift reference P(YES) is about 0.50–0.56.
• Live book: YES bid 59 / ask 60, so NO ask is about 41. Taker fee is 1¢ on the contract.

Why no trade

• YES all-in is about 62¢ against an estimate near 53¢. That is negative edge.
• NO all-in is about 43¢ against an estimate of 45–47¢. That is short of the 10-point bar.
• Neither side clears the 10-point rule, so I did not place an order.

Account

• Flat: no positions, no resting orders, $95.51 cash of the $100 allocation.

Open items

• The realized-P&L unit mismatch is still open. The state shows −$4.49 and the portfolio shows −$449.27.
• The 10.5-contract fill from the 18:45 window still does not appear in the portfolio.

Next run

• Check KXBTC15M-26NOV131600-00 (opens 20:45Z). Use the live book, not the listing, and apply the 10-point rule.
• Confirm the BRTI averaging windows in the rule text (20:29–20:30 and 20:44–20:45 for the two reference averages).

No order: YES ask 60¢ all-in about 62¢ vs ~53% estimate; NO ask 41¢ gives about 2–4 points edge, short of 10

Run report, 2026-11-13 20:17Z

What I saw

• Open window: KXBTC15M-26NOV131530-30, opens 20:15Z, closes 20:30Z, about 12.7 minutes left.
• Target is 68,974.65, the 60-second BRTI average before 3:15 PM EST. The market resolves YES if the 20:15–20:30 average is at least that level.
• Coinbase spot was 69,031.15 at 20:17Z, about 0.08% above target.
• Spot volatility gives a zero-drift P(YES) of about 0.70.
• Live book: YES ask 64¢ (12.6k contracts), YES bid 63¢. NO ask is about 37¢.
• The listing snapshot (67/68) was stale; the live book is the one I priced against.

Why no trade

• YES at 64¢ costs about 66¢ all-in with the taker fee, against a 70% estimate. That is about 4 points of edge, short of the 10-point bar.
• NO at about 37¢ (39¢ all-in) against a 30% estimate is negative edge.
• No order this run.

Account

• Flat: no positions, no resting orders, $95.51 cash of the $100 allocation.

Open items

• The realized-P&L unit mismatch is still open: the state shows −$4.49 and the portfolio shows −$449.27.
• The 10.5-contract fill from the 18:45 window still does not appear in the portfolio.

Next run

• Check KXBTC15M-26NOV131545-45 (opens 20:30Z) against the same 10-point rule, using the live book, not the listing.
• Confirm the BRTI averaging window in the rule text against the target.

No order: YES ask 64¢ all-in about 66¢ vs ~70% estimate gives about 4 points, short of the 10-point bar

No order this run. The 20:00–20:15Z window (KXBTC15M-26NOV131515-15) does not clear the 10-point bar on either side.

What I saw

• Target is 69,000.37, with about 12.7 minutes to close.
• Coinbase spot was 68,965.93 at 20:02Z, about 34 USD (−0.05%) below target.
• The 1-minute return sigma is 0.000494, which gives a zero-drift reference P(YES) of about 39%.
• The listing shows YES 34 bid / 35 ask. The taker fee is about 2¢, so YES costs about 37¢ all-in: an edge of roughly +2 points.
• NO asks are about 66¢ against a 61% estimate: negative edge.

Why no trade

• Neither side has an edge near the 10-point requirement.
• I did not re-check the live order book, since neither side was close enough to justify the extra step.

Account

• Flat: no positions and no resting orders. Cash is about $95.51 of the $100 allocation.

Open items

• The realized-P&L unit mismatch from earlier reports is still unresolved: state shows −$4.49, the portfolio shows −$449.27.
• The 10.5-contract fill from the 18:45 window still does not appear in the portfolio.

Next run

• Check KXBTC15M-26NOV131530-30 (20:15–20:30Z) against the same 10-point rule.
• Confirm the 60-second BRTI averages in the rule text, since the stated target may not match the average the rule describes.

No order: YES 35¢ / NO 66¢ vs ~39% YES estimate gives no 10-point edge

No order this run. The current 15-minute window (KXBTC15M-26NOV131500-00, 19:45–20:00Z) has no edge against my estimate.

What I saw

• Target is 68,982.4 and about 12.7 minutes remain.
• Coinbase spot was 68,896 at 19:47Z, about 86 USD (−0.12%) below target. The 1-minute return sigma gives a reference P(YES) of about 17%.
• The book is YES 19 bid / 20 ask, so buying NO costs about 81¢.

Why no trade

• Buying YES at 20¢ plus the 1¢ fee is no better than my ~17% estimate.
• Buying NO at about 81¢ against an estimate of about 83% is roughly a 2-point edge, well short of the 10-point bar.

Account

• Flat: no positions, no resting orders. Cash is about $95.51 of the $100 allocation.

Open items

• The realized-P&L unit mismatch from earlier reports is still unresolved: state shows −$4.49, the portfolio shows −$449.27.
• The 10.5-contract fill from the 18:45 window still does not appear in the portfolio.

Next run

• Check KXBTC15M-26NOV131515-15 (20:00–20:15Z) against the same 10-point rule. Confirm the 60-second BRTI reference average before pricing.

No order: YES 20¢ / NO 81¢ vs ~17% YES estimate gives no 10-point edge

No order this run. The live book moved to YES 42 bid / 43 ask, which leaves no edge either way against my roughly 43% YES estimate, so I'm staying flat.

Final report: BTC 15m target follower, 2026-11-13 19:32Z

• Window: KXBTC15M-26NOV131445-45, opens 19:30Z, closes 19:45Z, about 12.7 minutes left at the check. It resolves YES if the 60-second BRTI average before 19:45Z is at least the 60-second average before 19:30Z.
• Reference and spot: the 19:29–19:30 closes average about 68,960. Spot was 68,947 at 19:32Z, about 15 USD (−0.02%) below the reference.
• Estimate: per-minute sigma is about 0.034%, or roughly 84 USD over the remaining 12.7 minutes. A zero-drift estimate gives YES about 43%.
• Book: the first check showed YES 45/46. The re-read showed YES 42 bid / 43 ask, so buying NO costs about 58¢ and buying YES about 44¢ all-in. Neither side clears the 10-point edge bar.
• Account: flat, no positions, no resting orders. Cash about $95.51 of the $100 allocation.
• Open items: the realized-P&L unit mismatch from the last report (−$4.49 in state vs −$449.27 in portfolio) is still unresolved. Last run's 10.5-contract fill in the 18:45 window still does not appear in the portfolio.
• Next run: check the 19:45Z window (KXBTC15M-26NOV131500-00) against the same rule. Confirm the 60-second reference average before pricing.

No order: YES 43¢ / NO 58¢ all-in vs ~43% YES estimate gives no 10-point edge

No order this run. The 19:15–19:30Z window (KXBTC15M-26NOV131430-30) is priced close to fair value, so I'm staying flat.

What I saw

• Window: opened 19:15Z, closes 19:30Z, about 12.7 minutes left. It resolves YES if the 60-second BRTI average before 19:30Z is at least the 60-second average before 19:15Z.
• Reference: the 19:14–19:15 closes are about 68,938 and 68,973, so the 19:15 reference is roughly 68,950.
• Spot: 68,972 at 19:17Z, about +20 USD above the reference. The listed target of 68,944.54 is not the comparison the rule uses.
• Volatility: per-minute return sigma about 0.05%, so about 0.19% (roughly 130 USD) over the 15 minutes.

Estimate and book

• Zero-drift estimate for YES is about 55%.
• YES bid 65 / ask 66, so YES all-in is about 67¢. That is well above my estimate.
• NO ask is about 35¢, all-in about 36¢. My NO estimate is about 45%, an edge of about 8–9 points, short of the 10-point bar.

Account

• Flat: no positions and no resting orders.
• Cash about $95.51 of the $100 allocation.

Open items

• The state shows realized P&L of −$4.49 but the portfolio shows −$449.27; the unit mismatch is still unresolved.
• Last run's 10.5-contract fill in the 18:45 window does not appear in the portfolio.

No order: NO all-in 36¢ vs ~45% estimate is under the 10-point edge bar

No order this run. The 19:00–19:15Z window's market is priced at about fair value, so I didn't trade it.

What I saw

• Active window: KXBTC15M-26NOV131415-15. It opened at 19:00Z, closes at 19:15Z, and has about 12.7 minutes left.
• Resolution: YES if the 60-second BRTI average before 19:15Z is at least the 60-second average before 19:00Z. The listed target of 68,922.05 is not the comparison the rule uses.
• The 19:00Z reference is about 68,900, from the 18:57–18:59 closes (68,923, 68,932, 68,921).
• Spot was 68,812 at 19:02Z, about 90 USD below that reference.
• Per-minute return sigma is about 0.046%, roughly 32 USD per minute. My estimate for YES is about 13–17%.

Book and fees

• YES bid 16 / ask 17. YES all-in is about 18¢ (taker fee 1¢ at this price), against an estimate of roughly 13–17%. No edge.
• NO ask is about 83¢, so NO all-in is about 84¢. That is also within a few points of my estimate, well short of the 10-point threshold.

Account

• Flat: no positions and no resting orders. Cash $95.51 of the $100 allocation.

Open items

• The realized P&L unit mismatch is still unresolved: the state shows −$4.49, the portfolio shows −$449.27.
• Last run's 10.5-contract fill in the 18:45 window does not appear in the portfolio.

No order: YES all-in 18¢ and NO all-in 84¢ leave no 10-point edge vs my 13–17% estimate

Run summary, 18:47Z: no order.

What I saw

• The active window is KXBTC15M-26NOV131400-00. It opened at 18:45Z, closes at 19:00Z, and has about 12.7 minutes left.
• It resolves YES if the 60-second BRTI average before 19:00Z is at least the 60-second average before 18:45Z. The listed target of 68,781.66 is not the comparison the rule uses.
• The 18:45Z reference is about 68,775, from the 18:44 and 18:45 closes. Spot was 68,765 at 18:47Z, about 0.015% below it.
• Per-minute return sigma is about 0.052%, so about 0.185% over the remaining window. That gives z ≈ -0.08 and a zero-drift P(YES) ≈ 0.47.

Book and fees

• YES bid 51 / ask 52. The taker fee is 2¢, so YES all-in is about 54¢. That is above the estimated 47% chance, so YES is negative.
• NO ask is about 48¢. With the 2¢ fee, NO all-in is about 50¢ against an estimated 53% chance. That is about a 3-point edge, below the 10-point threshold.

Account

• Flat: no positions and no resting orders. Cash about $95.51.

Open items

• The realized P&L unit mismatch (−$4.49 in the state vs −$449.27 in the portfolio) is still unresolved.
• Last run's 10.5-contract fill in the 18:45 window does not appear in the portfolio.

No order: YES all-in 54¢ and NO all-in 50¢ leave under 5-point edge vs 10 needed

Run summary, 18:32Z: no order.

What I saw

• The 18:30Z window (KXBTC15M-26NOV131330-30) has closed. The active window is KXBTC15M-26NOV131345-45, which opened at 18:30Z and closes at 18:45Z, with 12.7 minutes left.
• It resolves YES if the 60-second BRTI average before 18:45Z is at least the 60-second average before 18:30Z. The listed target of 68,870.96 is not the comparison the rule uses.
• The 18:30Z reference is about 68,844, from the 18:29–18:30 closes. Spot was 68,884 at 18:32Z, about 0.06% above it.
• Per-minute return sigma is 0.048%, so about 0.17% over the remaining 12.7 minutes. That gives z ≈ 0.34 and a zero-drift P(YES) ≈ 0.63.

Book and fees

• YES bid 52 / ask 53. The taker fee at 53¢ is 2¢, so YES all-in is about 55¢.
• Edge is about 8 points, below the 10-point threshold.
• NO is negative: its all-in price is about 49¢ against an estimated 37% chance of winning.

Account

• Flat: no positions, no resting orders, $95.51 cash.

Open items

• The realized P&L unit mismatch (−$4.49 in the state vs −$449.27 in the portfolio) is still unresolved.
• Last run's 10.5-contract fill in the 18:45 window does not appear in the portfolio.

No order: YES all-in 55¢ gives about 8-point edge vs 10 needed