eth15-momentum

## Final Report

Checked: KXETH15M-26SEP021815-15, ETH price-up market, closing 22:15Z (~9 minutes remaining).

Signal: YES fell sharply from 37 → 33 → 22 → 16 → 12 → 6.1 over the latest six recorded minutes, confirming strong downward momentum. The corresponding NO buy ask was approximately 94.7¢ (100 − YES bid 5.3¢), outside the required 30–80¢ entry range. YES asks were around 5.4¢, also outside the range.

Action: No trade. The directional signal was strong, but executable prices failed the entry filter; the extreme edge is treated as a warning rather than an opportunity.

State: No positions and no resting orders.

Next run: Check the current KXETH15M market, remaining time, recent minute history, and executable ask first.

## Final Report

Checked: KXETH15M-26SEP021800-00, ETH price-up market, closing 22:00Z (~9 minutes remaining).

Signal: YES price declined from 25 → 21 → 18 → 14 → 12 → 11 over the last six recorded minutes, a clear downward move. However, buying NO would cost approximately 89¢ (100 − YES bid of 11¢), above the strategy’s required 30–80¢ entry range. YES asks were 12–13¢, also outside the permitted range for buying the downward-side contract under the stated rule.

Action: No trade. The momentum signal was present, but executable pricing failed the entry filter. No positions or resting orders.

Next run: Check the currently listed KXETH15M market and remaining time first; only enter if momentum persists and the relevant ask is within 30–80¢.

## Final Report

Checked: KXETH15M-26SEP021745-45, ETH price-up market, closing 21:45Z (~9 minutes remaining).

Signal: Sparse minute history moved 42 → 33 → 31 → 27 → 25 → 36. Despite the latest bounce, the last several minutes show a net downward move of 6 points, qualifying for a NO momentum entry. The YES bid was 30¢, making the executable NO ask approximately 70¢, within the 30–80¢ range. The order book showed YES bids down to 28¢, supporting the NO purchase.

Action: Bought 5 NO contracts, limit 70¢; all filled at 67¢, with 8¢ fee. No resting remainder. Position is intended to settle naturally.

Next run: Check the portfolio and settlement status first; this position should resolve at or shortly after 21:45Z.

## Final Report

Checked: KXETH15M-26SEP021730-30, ETH price-up market, closing 21:30Z (~9 minutes remaining).

Signal: YES history moved 48 → 32 → 28 → 23 → 29 → 23. This is a clear downward move over the latest minutes, indicating a potential NO entry. The executable NO ask is based on the YES bid at 20¢, so NO costs 80¢, exactly at the strategy’s upper bound. However, the market has only ~9 minutes remaining, and the latest history is volatile rather than consistently declining.

Action: No trade. The signal qualifies directionally, but the setup is marginal at the maximum allowed entry price and leaves limited time for management. No positions or resting orders remain.

Next run: Check the newly current KXETH15M market, confirm at least six minutes remain, then reassess the sparse minute history and side-specific order book.

## Final Report

Checked: KXETH15M-26SEP021715-15, ETH price-up market, closing 21:15Z (~9 minutes remaining).

Signal: YES history declined 36 → 33 → 34 → 29 → 23 → 23. This is a clear downward move of 10 points over the latest 3–5 minutes, which signals buying NO. However, the YES bid is 15¢, so the executable NO ask is 85¢ (100 − YES bid), outside the strategy’s required 30–80¢ entry range.

Action: No trade. The market qualifies on time and momentum, but not on the required ask range. No positions or resting orders remain.

Next run: Check the current KXETH15M market, confirm at least six minutes remain, then reassess sparse minute history and the executable side-specific book.

## Final Report

Checked: KXETH15M-26SEP021700-00, ETH price-up market, closing 21:00Z (~9 minutes remaining).

Signal: YES history rose 34 → 46 → 59 → 74, then reversed to 58 → 68. Although the recent net move is upward, the latest sequence is volatile and does not show a clean directional 3–5-minute move. The YES ask was 73¢, within the permitted 30–80¢ range, but the reversal and short horizon reduce confidence.

Action: No trade. Avoided the fixed 5-contract entry because the momentum signal was not sufficiently clear. No positions or resting orders remain.

Next run: Check the next/current KXETH15M market, verify at least six minutes remain, then reassess the latest minute history and executable book.

## Final Report

Checked: KXETH15M-26SEP021645-45, ETH price-up market, closing 20:45Z (~9 minutes remaining).

Signal: Recent YES minute prices were 51 → 41 → 71 → 58 → 78 → 84. Although the net move is strongly upward, the latest displayed YES ask was 76¢, and the history is volatile rather than a clean directional 3–5-minute sequence. The strategy also requires the executable side’s ask to be between 30¢ and 80¢; YES qualifies narrowly, but the market is already at a high price with limited time for momentum to develop.

Action: No trade. Avoided entering a 5-contract position because the signal is ambiguous/reversing and the remaining horizon is short. No resting orders or positions remain.

Next run: Check the newly listed/current KXETH15M period first, confirm at least 6 minutes remain, then evaluate the latest minute history and order book for a clearer directional move.

## Final Report

Checked: KXETH15M-26SEP021630-30, ETH price-up market, closing 20:30Z (~9 minutes remaining).

Signal: Recent YES minute prices moved 28 → 27 → 21 → 17 → 17 → 40, a sharp +23-point reversal in the latest minute, qualifying as directional momentum. The displayed YES ask was 43¢, within the 30–80¢ entry range; order book showed 43¢ ask liquidity.

Action: Bought 5 YES contracts with a 47¢ limit (ask +4¢). All 5 filled at 44¢, with 9¢ fees. No resting orders remain.

Next run: Check this position first and monitor the market through settlement; it should settle within the current 15-minute period.

## Final Report

Checked: KXETH15M-26SEP021615-15, ETH price-up market, closing 20:15Z (~9 minutes remaining).

Signal: YES history rose sharply from 46 → 56 → 73 → 86 → 90.2 → 90.9, satisfying the momentum condition. However, the current YES ask is 93.5¢, above the strategy’s permitted 30–80¢ entry range.

Action: No trade. The move is already extensively priced in, and entering above 80¢ would violate the standing strategy. No positions or resting orders remain. Next run should inspect the newly listed/current 15-minute market and avoid chasing prices outside the entry band.

## Final Report

Checked: KXETH15M-26SEP021600-00, ETH price-up market, closing 20:00Z (~8 minutes remaining).

Signal: Recent YES history was volatile but rose overall: 56 → 62 → 45 → 57 → 53 → 58 → 69. The latest 3–5 active minutes show a qualifying upward move of at least 5 points, so the strategy favors buying YES.

Book/action: YES bid/ask was 80/81¢. I placed the fixed 5-contract YES buy with an 80¢ ceiling, but it did not cross the current ask and is resting at 80¢.

Resting order: Order 4636, 5 YES at 80¢, fully unfilled and reserving cash. It is intentionally waiting for a pullback to 80¢; next run should first check whether it filled, cancel it if the market has moved away or the thesis expires, and manage any resulting position.