longshot-no-maker

Run 2026-09-06 17:09 UTC — PAPER.

Reviewed eligible Entertainment, Science & Technology, and Social markets. Social had no listings. The existing By Any Means NO order (KXRT-BYA-65) was canceled because its market closes in under two hours. The WARDOGS NO order remains resting at 92¢; it closes 2026-09-08 03:59Z.

Placed two passive, maker-fee-free NO bids:

• DeepSeek most popular AI: 5 NO @ 92¢, order 5699; YES was 4¢/7¢ with 5 contracts at the 7¢ ask. Closes 2026-09-07 03:59Z.
• Netflix #1 show at least 18M views: 5 NO @ 93¢, order 5700; YES was 4¢/6¢ with 1,144 contracts at the ask. Closes 2026-09-08 03:59Z.

Both new orders are unfilled and resting. Existing positions are unchanged; the closed Alabama Shakes position remains awaiting settlement. Next run should check fills, review WARDOGS/DeepSeek timing, and cancel any order entering its final two hours.

Run 2026-09-06 14:09 UTC — PAPER.

Reviewed eligible Entertainment, Science & Technology, and Social markets. Social had no markets. The existing DeepSeek NO bid (90¢) was within two hours of its 2026-09-07 03:59Z close, so I canceled order 5609 rather than leave it exposed into resolution. The By Any Means NO bid at 91¢ remains resting; its close is 2026-09-07 14:00Z.

A qualifying new candidate was WARDOGS as Steam weekly top seller: YES bid/ask 4¢/7¢ with 257 YES contracts at the ask, closing 2026-09-08 03:59Z. I placed a passive buy for 5 NO at 92¢ (one cent below the implied 93¢ NO ask). Order 5671 is resting and unfilled, maker-fee free.

Other reviewed candidates either had insufficient/uncertain depth, wide spreads, or were already represented by existing exposure. No exits were triggered; positions remain unchanged. Next run: check fills and re-evaluate resting order 5638 (By Any Means) and 5671 (WARDOGS), and avoid duplicating current positions.

Run 2026-09-06 11:09 UTC — PAPER.

Reviewed Entertainment, Science & Technology, and Social markets closing within 72 hours. Social had no markets. Most Entertainment markets close today at 14:00Z, but By Any Means has an eligible longshot: YES ask 8¢ with 28 contracts displayed, closing 2026-09-07 14:00Z. I placed a passive order for 5 NO at 91¢, one cent below the implied NO ask of 92¢; it is resting and unfilled with zero maker fee.

The existing DeepSeek NO order remains resting at 90¢; its market shows YES bid/ask 5¢/9¢ and closes 2026-09-07 03:59Z. I did not cancel it because it is not yet within the two-hour cancellation window. Existing positions were unchanged, including Qwen NO, which remains marked near 1¢, and the held Rotten Tomatoes positions. Next run should check both resting orders, especially DeepSeek as its close approaches, and avoid adding duplicate exposure.

Run 2026-09-06 08:09 UTC — PAPER.

Scanned Entertainment, Science & Technology, and Social markets closing within 72 hours. Social returned no markets. Entertainment has several longshots, but most settle at 14:00Z today, leaving too little horizon; I avoided new exposure there and did not add to existing I Must Be Dreaming or Rotten Tomatoes positions.

Technology offered the clearest eligible setup: DeepSeek “most popular AI” YES ask 9¢ with 127 contracts displayed, closing 2026-09-07 03:59Z. I placed one passive order for 5 NO at 90¢ (one cent below the implied NO ask of 91¢); it is resting and unfilled, maker fee 0. I did not enter OpenAI or Anthropic share markets because their YES asks were 40¢ and 23¢, outside the strategy range.

Existing positions remain unchanged, including Qwen NO 5 at 94¢, currently marked near 1¢. No exits were taken because the standing strategy holds to settlement. Next run should check the DeepSeek resting order, Qwen settlement/status, and whether the entertainment markets have settled.

Run 2026-09-06 05:09 UTC — PAPER.

Reviewed Entertainment, Science and Technology, and Social markets closing within 72 hours. Entertainment markets settle today at 14:00Z and offered no suitable new entry; existing I Must Be Dreaming NO remains held. Social had no markets returned.

Technology candidates included DeepSeek share 24.5% (YES ask 80¢, not a longshot), OpenAI share above 20% (44¢), Anthropic share above 3% (22¢), and Qwen thresholds with thin/awkward books. The strongest apparent longshot, DeepSeek “most popular AI” at 9¢, had substantial ask depth but is already part of the crowded technology theme and closes in roughly 23 hours; I did not add exposure. Other 1¢ candidates had enormous displayed depth and did not meet the intended 4–10¢ entry range.

No orders or exits were placed. No resting orders remain. Current positions are unchanged: Qwen NO 5, I Must Be Dreaming NO 5, By Any Means NO 5, and Onslaught NO 5. Next run should first check the 14:00Z entertainment settlement and then reassess technology positions/markets before considering any passive entry.

Run 2026-09-06 02:09 UTC — PAPER.

Reviewed all Entertainment, Science and Technology, and Social markets closing within 72 hours. Several Entertainment markets close at 14:00Z today, so existing passive orders were within the final two-hour management window relative to the next run cadence. I canceled orders 5291 (Z.ai), 5329 (Anthropic), 5363 (Don’t Look Down album-equivalent 110K), and 5512 (WILD CHILD pure sales).

Books showed no suitable new passive entries with adequate spread and thesis support. OpenAI 20% had a 12¢ YES ask, outside the target; DeepSeek 24.5% had a 7¢ ask but is already crowded with existing exposure in the broader technology theme; other low-YES candidates were either already represented or too thin/uncertain. No new orders or exits were placed.

Current positions remain: Qwen NO 5, I Must Be Dreaming NO 5, By Any Means NO 5, and Onslaught NO 5. No resting orders remain. Next run should first verify settlement/fills around the Sep 6 entertainment close, then reassess the technology markets before entering any new fixed-size passive NO position.

Run 2026-09-05 23:09 UTC — PAPER.

Reviewed Entertainment, Science and Technology, and Social markets closing within 72 hours. No Social markets were listed. Existing orders remain active and are not within the final two-hour cancellation window.

Most qualifying low-YES candidates were already represented by positions or resting orders. OpenAI above 20 had a 13¢ YES ask, outside the 4–10¢ target. DeepSeek was wide (47¢ bid / 75¢ ask). The clearest new candidate was WILD CHILD above 55K: YES book 6¢ bid / 71¢ ask, with substantial depth; I placed a passive buy of 5 NO at 28¢, one cent below the 29¢ NO ask implied by the 71¢ YES ask. Order 5512 is resting, unfilled, with 140¢ reserved.

No exits or cancellations. Resting orders now: 5291 Z.ai NO @93¢; 5329 Anthropic 3.2 NO @93¢; 5363 album-equivalent 110K NO @91¢; 5406 Onslaught 55 NO @91¢; 5512 WILD CHILD 55K NO @28¢. Note that the prior report mentioned order 5328 for Qwen, but current state listed no such order; verify next run whether it filled, disappeared, or was superseded.

Next run: check fills and all orders against closing times, especially the Sep 6 14:00Z entertainment markets as they approach the final two-hour window, then review whether any remaining passive bids still have thesis support.

Run 2026-09-05 20:09 UTC — PAPER.

Reviewed Entertainment, Science and Technology, and Social markets closing within 72 hours. Social had no events. Existing resting orders remain active and are not yet within the final two-hour cancellation window.

Books continue to support the existing maker thesis: Onslaught above 55 is 4¢ bid / 5¢ ask with substantial depth; Z.ai remains a 5¢ YES ask but has no bid; Qwen 5.2 and Anthropic 3.2 have usable low-side depth, while the existing orders are already resting appropriately. Other apparent longshots were either in events already represented by resting orders, lacked sufficient two-sided depth, or had spreads too wide for a reliable passive entry.

No new orders or exits placed. Resting orders unchanged: 5291 Z.ai NO @93¢; 5328 Qwen 5.2 NO @94¢; 5329 Anthropic 3.2 NO @93¢; 5363 album-equivalent 110K NO @91¢; 5406 Onslaught 55 NO @91¢.

Next run should first check whether any order is within two hours of its market close, cancel those as required, and review fills and book movement before considering any new entries.

Run 2026-09-05 17:09 UTC — PAPER.

Reviewed Entertainment, Science and Technology, and Social markets closing within 72 hours. Social returned no events. Existing resting orders remain active; Z.ai has YES ask 5¢ with substantial depth, and the other existing orders remain aligned with the maker thesis. None is within the final two-hour cancellation window.

Checked candidate books: I Must Be Dreaming above 40K had a 5¢ YES ask but no bid and was skipped for insufficient two-sided depth; OpenAI share above 20% showed YES 4¢/6¢ with depth, but was not selected because the event already has a resting order in the same event. Onslaught above 55 remains YES 4¢/5¢ with substantial depth, and existing order 5406 remains appropriately resting at NO 91¢. No new orders or exits placed. Next run should recheck all resting orders, especially as markets approach their final two hours.

Run 2026-09-05 14:09 UTC — PAPER.

Reviewed Entertainment, Science & Technology, and Social markets closing within 72 hours. Existing orders remain active and outside the final two-hour cancellation window: Z.ai NO 93¢, Qwen 5.2% NO 94¢, Anthropic 3.2% NO 93¢, and Don’t Look Down album-equivalent units above 110K NO 91¢. No thesis break or exit condition occurred for current positions.

Found Onslaught Rotten Tomatoes above 55 with YES bid/ask 7/8¢ and substantial depth. Following the maker strategy, placed 5 NO at 91¢, one cent below the 92¢ NO ask; order 5406 is resting and unfilled. No other qualifying candidate offered a better distinct passive setup. Next run should check all five resting orders, reserved cash, and whether any market reaches its final two hours.