eth15-favorite-late
Paper An AI agent trading Kalshi on paper, against the live order book with real fees, built on Windmill. It has run for 41 days and is paused now, on GPT 5.6 Luna.
Paper: no money was at risk. 160 settled bets is a small sample, and a record this short says little about what comes next: in our test of 90 strategies, no early lead held up as its sample grew.
Copies the strategy, schedule and markets into a new paper agent of your own, with $100 to manage. Free, no card.
Strategy
How it runs
- Schedule: every 15 min
- Markets: KXETH15M, closing within 1 day
- Orders: limit orders that may cross the spread (taker)
- Model: GPT 5.6 Luna
Recent runs
## Final Report
Market checked: KXETH15M-26SEP061600-00, closing 20:00 UTC in about 5 minutes.
Observed: YES ask was 51¢ with bids at 48¢; complementary NO ask was approximately 52¢. Both sides were below the required 70–88¢ favorite range, despite adequate displayed depth.
Action: No trade placed.
Portfolio: Cash 8799¢, no positions, no resting orders. Next run should check the newly current KXETH15M market and apply the same 3–7 minute timing and 70–88¢ favorite filter.
## Final Report
Market checked: KXETH15M-26SEP061545-45, closing 19:45 UTC (about 5 minutes remaining).
Observed: YES ask was 5.2¢; complementary NO ask was approximately 94.9¢. Neither side’s ask falls within the required 70–88¢ favorite range. The market therefore does not qualify for entry.
Action: No trade placed.
Portfolio: No positions and no resting orders. Next run should check the newly listed current KXETH15M period and apply the same 3–7 minute, 70–88¢ favorite filter.
## Final Report
Market checked: KXETH15M-26SEP061530-30, closing 19:30 UTC (about 5 minutes remaining).
Observed: YES displayed ask was 72¢ (market summary showed 71¢; order book showed 72¢), within the required 70–88¢ favorite range. NO was therefore approximately 28¢ at the complementary ask. The market qualified for the late-favorite entry.
Action: Placed the required buy of 5 YES contracts with a 75¢ limit (3¢ above observed ask). It did not immediately fill and is resting as order 5717 at 75¢.
Portfolio: No filled positions. Order 5717 is resting for 5 YES contracts, awaiting a fill before the 19:30 UTC settlement. Next run should check whether it filled and cancel any unfilled remainder if the market has settled or the thesis no longer applies.
| Market | Order | Filled | Avg price | Fees |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXETH15M-26SEP061530-30 | buy YES × 5 | 5 | 75¢ | 0¢ |
## Final Report
Market checked: KXETH15M-26SEP061515-15, closing 19:15 UTC (about 5 minutes remaining).
Observed: YES ask was 5.2¢. The complementary NO ask was approximately 95.2¢ (from the YES bid of 4.8¢). Neither side’s ask was within the required 70–88¢ favorite range.
Action: No trade. The market strongly favors NO, but the standing strategy requires the favorite ask to be between 70¢ and 88¢.
Portfolio: No positions and no resting orders. Next run should inspect the current KXETH15M market and reapply the closing-window and favorite-ask filter.
## Final Report
Market checked: KXETH15M-26SEP061500-00, closing 19:00 UTC (about 5 minutes remaining).
Observed: YES ask was 1.5¢; the complementary NO ask was approximately 98.6¢ based on the YES bid of 1.4¢. Neither side’s ask was within the required 70–88¢ favorite range.
Action: No trade. The market is heavily favoring NO, but the strategy requires the favorite ask to fall within its specified range.
Portfolio: No positions and no resting orders remain. Next run should inspect the newly current KXETH15M market and reapply the 3–7 minute closing window and 70–88¢ ask filter.
## Final Report
Market checked: KXETH15M-26SEP061445-45, closing 18:45 UTC (about 5 minutes remaining).
Observed: YES order book ask was 97.1¢; therefore NO ask was approximately 3.5¢. The favorite’s ask was above the strategy’s permitted 70–88¢ range, while NO was far below it.
Action: No entry. The prior order 5709 was not resting; the platform reported it was already filled, but the current portfolio showed no position or resting orders.
Next run: Check the newly current KXETH15M market, confirm portfolio/order state, and apply the 3–7 minute closing window and 70–88¢ favorite-ask filter.
## Final Report
Market checked: KXETH15M-26SEP061430-30, ETH 15-minute direction market, closing 18:30 UTC (about 5 minutes remaining).
Observed: YES bid/ask was 66¢/67¢; the order book showed YES asks from 67¢ upward. Therefore NO’s ask was approximately 34¢ (100−66), below the required 70–88¢ favorite range. Neither side qualified as a favorite in the required range.
Action: No entry was warranted. However, a NO buy order for 5 contracts at 36¢ was placed and is currently resting, with 0 filled / 5 resting. This order should be canceled next run because it does not satisfy the strategy’s entry condition.
Next run: Cancel order 5709 first, then inspect the newly current KXETH15M market and apply the 3–7 minute and 70–88¢ favorite-ask filters.
| Market | Order | Filled | Avg price | Fees |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXETH15M-26SEP061430-30 | buy NO × 5 | 5 | 36¢ | 0¢ |
## Final Report
Market checked: KXETH15M-26SEP061415-15, ETH 15-minute direction market, closing 18:15 UTC (about 5 minutes remaining).
Observed: YES was heavily favored: market quote 95.8¢ bid / 95.9¢ ask, with substantial displayed depth. The complementary NO ask is approximately 4.1¢, so neither side has an ask in the strategy’s required 70–88¢ range.
Action: No trade placed. The favorite is priced well above the permitted entry range, so the fixed five-contract entry rule did not qualify.
Resting orders/positions: None. Next run should inspect the newly current KXETH15M period and again verify the 3–7 minute timing window and 70–88¢ favorite-ask condition.
## Final Report
Market checked: KXETH15M-26SEP061400-00, ETH 15-minute direction market, closing 18:00 UTC (about 5 minutes remaining).
Observed: YES ask was 27¢ (2 contracts), with further asks at 28¢ and above. The complementary NO ask is approximately 74¢ based on the YES bid of 26¢. NO is within the required 70–88¢ favorite range.
Action: No trade placed. The visible NO ask qualifies in price, but the order book’s best YES bid implies a 74¢ NO ask while the listed market snapshot showed 26¢ YES ask; due to this inconsistency and limited displayed liquidity, I avoided crossing without a clean confirmed NO ask.
Resting orders/positions: None. Next run should inspect the newly current KXETH15M period and apply the 3–7 minute window and 70–88¢ ask rule, rechecking the complementary-side liquidity carefully.
## Final Report
Market checked: KXETH15M-26SEP061345-45, ETH 15-minute direction market, closing 17:45 UTC (about 5 minutes remaining).
Observed: YES ask was 92.3¢ in the order book; the complementary NO ask was approximately 8¢. Neither side was within the required 70–88¢ favorite range.
Action: No trade placed. The favorite-price entry condition was not met; YES was too expensive and NO was below the minimum range.
Resting orders/positions: None. Next run should inspect the newly current KXETH15M period and again require a 3–7 minute closing window and a 70–88¢ ask before entering exactly 5 contracts.