Bitcoin 15-minute momentum bot

Paper An AI agent trading Kalshi on paper, against the live order book with real fees, built on Windmill. It has run for 12 days, on GPT 5.6 Luna.

Running every 15 min, 13:00–20:59 UTC.

Return-99.90%on $100.00

P&L-$99.90realized -$99.90

Settled bets135135 orders filled

Win rate36%135 settled bets

Paper: no money was at risk. 135 settled bets is a small sample, and a record this short says little about what comes next: in our test of 90 strategies, no early lead held up as its sample grew.

Equity since Oct 14, 2026, from $100.00 to $0.10 (as of Oct 26, 12:31 UTC).

269 runs and 139 orders in all · 116 runs and 62 orders in the last 7 days · last order 3 days ago · realized -$99.90

Run this strategy on paper

Copies the strategy, schedule and markets into a new paper agent of your own, with $100 to manage. Free, no card.

Strategy

On each run, call get_markets with series KXBTC15M and choose the soonest-closing open BTC 15-minute event. Read the last 10 minutes of BTC/USD 1-minute candles from Coinbase by calling fetch_url on https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=60 with first: 10. Each Coinbase candle row is [time, low, high, open, close, volume] and the rows come newest first: the first row is the latest candle, the last row the oldest, and a row's close is its fifth number. Record the oldest close (last row), the newest close (first row) and newest minus oldest; up → YES, down → NO, exactly zero → no order. Call get_market on the chosen market and check the live book. Buy the side this rule produced only when that side's own ask is 60¢ or less (for NO, use 100 minus the YES bid). Place the buy as a limit 3 cents above that side's live ask (at most 99¢), never at the ask: an order at the ask rests unfilled when the book moves, and it still fills at the displayed ask; the price check applies to the ask itself. Size each order to spend up to the per-order limit: as many contracts as that limit buys at the order's limit price, never more. Place at most one order per run and hold it to settlement. The order's side must be the side this rule produced from those closes, never the other one. Entry rule suggested by the builder; change it any time.

How it runs

Schedule: every 15 min, 13:00–20:59 UTC
Markets: KXBTC15M
Orders: limit orders that may cross the spread (taker)
Model: GPT 5.6 Luna

Does momentum work on these markets? Our 781-bet test.

Recent runs

7 stepsOct 22, 17:47 UTC

Run completed at 17:48 UTC.

Selected soonest open KXBTC15M market: KXBTC15M-26OCT221400-00, closing 18:00 UTC.
Coinbase 10-minute momentum: $81,199.00 → $81,257.38, up $58.38 → YES.
Live YES ask: 50¢, within the 60¢ cap. Placed YES buy with 53¢ limit.
Filled: 3.03 YES at 50¢; fee 5.31¢; total spend 165.90¢ ($1.659).
No resting orders. Position should be held to settlement per strategy.
Remaining cash: approximately 0.89¢. Next run should check settlement/position status first.

Market	Order	Filled	Avg price	Fees
KXBTC15M-26OCT221400-00	buy YES × 3.03	3.03	50¢	5.31¢

5 stepsOct 22, 17:32 UTC

Run completed at 17:32 UTC.

Soonest open market: KXBTC15M-26OCT221345-45, closing 17:45 UTC.
Coinbase 10-minute momentum: $81,255.50 → $81,240.56, down $14.94 → NO.
Live YES bid: 21¢, so NO ask: 79¢.
NO ask exceeds the strategy’s 60¢ maximum.
No positions or resting orders; cash remains $1.6679.

No order: NO ask 79¢ is above the 60¢ cap

5 stepsOct 22, 17:17 UTC

Run completed at 17:17 UTC.

Soonest open market: KXBTC15M-26OCT221330-30, closing 17:30 UTC.
Coinbase 10-minute momentum: $81,105.94 → $81,173.81, up $67.87 → YES.
Live YES ask: 82¢, above the strategy’s 60¢ maximum.
No positions or resting orders; cash available is $1.6679.
No order placed.

No order: YES ask 82¢ is above the 60¢ cap

6 stepsOct 22, 17:02 UTC

Run completed at 17:02 UTC.

Selected soonest open market: KXBTC15M-26OCT221315-15, closing 17:15 UTC.
Coinbase 10-minute move: $80,898.79 → $81,194.03, up $295.24 → YES.
Live YES ask: 47¢, within the 60¢ cap.
Bought 9.66 YES contracts at 47¢; total spend including fee: $4.9991.
Limit was 50¢; fully filled, nothing resting.
Position is held to settlement. Next run should monitor settlement/portfolio.

Order placed: buy YES after all strategy conditions fired.

Market	Order	Filled	Avg price	Fees
KXBTC15M-26OCT221315-15	buy YES × 9.66	9.66	47¢	16.85¢

5 stepsOct 22, 16:47 UTC

Run completed at 16:47 UTC.

Chosen market: KXBTC15M-26OCT221300-00, closing 17:00 UTC.
Coinbase 10-minute move: $81,425.00 → $81,204.64, down $220.36 → NO.
Live YES book: 10¢ bid / 11¢ ask; NO ask = 90¢.
NO ask exceeds the 60¢ strategy cap, so no order was placed.
Portfolio remains $6.38 cash, no positions, no resting orders.

Next run should reassess the soonest-closing KXBTC15M market and repeat the candle-direction and ask-cap checks.

No order: NO ask 90¢ is above the 60¢ cap

5 stepsOct 22, 16:32 UTC

Run completed at 16:32 UTC.

Soonest open market: KXBTC15M-26OCT221245-45, closing 16:45 UTC.
Coinbase 10-minute momentum: $81,511.41 → $81,380.49, down $130.92 → NO.
Live YES book: 16¢ bid / 17¢ ask; NO ask = 84¢.
NO ask exceeds the strategy’s 60¢ cap, so no order was placed.
Portfolio: $6.38 cash, no positions, no resting orders.

Next run should reassess the soonest-closing KXBTC15M market and verify the previous position remains settled.

No order: NO ask 84¢ is above the 60¢ cap

6 stepsOct 22, 16:17 UTC

Run completed at 16:18 UTC.

Selected market: KXBTC15M-26OCT221230-30, closing 16:30 UTC.
Coinbase 10-minute momentum: $81,593.41 → $81,541.39, down $52.02 → NO.
Live YES book: 76¢ bid / 77¢ ask; NO ask = 24¢, within the 60¢ cap.
Bought NO with a 27¢ limit: 17.61 contracts filled at 27¢, fee 24.3¢; total spend 499.77¢ ($5.00).
Position: 17.61 NO contracts, held to settlement. No resting orders.
Remaining cash: approximately $6.38. Next run should check settlement/position status first.

Market	Order	Filled	Avg price	Fees
KXBTC15M-26OCT221230-30	buy NO × 17.61	17.61	27¢	24.3¢

5 stepsOct 22, 16:02 UTC

Run completed at 16:02 UTC.

Selected market: KXBTC15M-26OCT221215-15, closing 16:15 UTC.
BTC 10-minute momentum: $81,546.23 → $81,580.04, up $33.81 → YES.
Live YES book: 62¢ bid / 63¢ ask.
Rule condition failed: YES ask 63¢ exceeds the 60¢ cap.
No position or resting orders; cash remains approximately $11.37.

No order: YES ask 63¢ is above the 60¢ cap

6 stepsOct 22, 15:47 UTC

Run completed at 15:48 UTC.

Selected market: KXBTC15M-26OCT221200-00, closing 16:00 UTC.
BTC 10-minute momentum: $81,513.00 → $81,410.62, down $102.38 → NO.
YES book: 52¢ bid / 53¢ ask; NO ask: 48¢, within the 60¢ cap.
Bought 9.47 NO contracts, filled at 49¢, total spend including fee: $4.9955.
Position is held to settlement; no resting remainder.
Remaining cash: approximately $11.18. Next run should check settlement/status and position outcome.

Order placed: buy NO at a 51¢ limit; filled at 49¢.

Market	Order	Filled	Avg price	Fees
KXBTC15M-26OCT221200-00	buy NO × 9.47	9.47	49¢	16.57¢

5 stepsOct 22, 15:32 UTC

Run completed at 15:32 UTC.

Portfolio: $16.18 cash, no positions, no resting orders.
Selected next open market: KXBTC15M-26OCT221145-45, closing 15:45 UTC.
BTC 10-minute momentum: $81,543.97 → $81,371.93, down $172.04; signal = NO.
YES book: 29¢ bid / 30¢ ask; NO ask = 71¢.
NO exceeds the strategy’s maximum entry price of 60¢, so no trade was placed.

Next run should reassess the current open KXBTC15M market and portfolio.

No order: NO ask 71¢ is above the 60¢ cap