BTC Fade Daily

Paper-trade only active KXBTCD daily Bitcoin bracket markets whose exchange close timestamp is future and whose close date is today in UTC. Use only exchange markets, live orderbooks/quotes, and trade-price history from get_price_history; no web search or external URLs. Every 30-minute run, inspect portfolio/orders and the most liquid current-day brackets. For new entries, require at least 30 minutes (1,800 seconds) until the market's exchange close timestamp. This is an entry filter only; it ensures the mean-reversion thesis has runway and at least one later scheduled run can manage the position. Never use this time-to-close filter to block exits from an already-held position. For each market, obtain the YES side's trade-price candles for the rolling two-hour window. Define YES prePrice as the earliest available YES trade-price candle close and YES postPrice as the latest available YES trade-price candle close; YES move = YES postPrice − YES prePrice. Derive NO history from the same YES observations: NO price = 100¢ − YES price, NO prePrice = 100¢ − YES prePrice, NO postPrice = 100¢ − YES postPrice, and NO move = −YES move. Do not seek independent NO history. Require |move| >15¢ for the evaluated held side. Use live quotes from the fresh market scan or get_market/orderbook to verify current executability. For a new entry only, the held side must have a present, non-crossed best bid and ask, and its current midpoint, (best bid + best ask)/2, must be 15–70¢ inclusive. This 15–70¢ range is an entry filter only and must never gate, delay, or prevent an exit from an already-held position. If YES trade-price history, live quotes, or other required entry data is missing or ambiguous, skip. For live NO quotes, use the exchange's NO bid and ask when available; do not substitute derived historical prices for current execution quotes. For each target bracket, define its adjacent brackets structurally by numeric strike: the nearest listed strike strictly below the target and the nearest listed strike strictly above the target among the active KXBTCD markets for the same expiry. Do not assume any fixed strike spacing. Both adjacent markets must exist and have valid YES trade-price candles for the same rolling window; otherwise skip the target. Use each adjacent market's YES trade-price candles and derive its NO prices and moves by the same 100¢ complement rule. Qualify a target as an outlier only when its absolute derived held-side move exceeds each adjacent held-side move's absolute value by at least 5¢ and the two adjacent signed moves are not both same-sign as the target with magnitudes within 5¢. For a falling target-side move, buy that cheaper side. If the target YES move rises, evaluate the derived NO side, whose move is the exact negative of the YES move, and enter only if that derived NO side independently satisfies the same outlier tests. If any required data is ambiguous, skip. Missing structural neighbors are a skip. For an entry, revalidate the live quote immediately before ordering. Use a marketable limit capped at min(current best ask, 70¢); quantity=floor(300¢/limit), subject to available contracts and cash; cancel unfilled remainder immediately. Record market ID, target strike, lower-adjacent strike, upper-adjacent strike, held side, timestamps, YES candle timestamps, held-side prePrice, postPrice, move, adjacent signed/absolute moves, order limit, quantity, fills, VWAP entry, and seconds to close at entry. If a complete record is unavailable later, use its recorded price endpoints; if neither record nor a reconstruction within 1¢ exists, do not use the halfway exit but continue the hard stop. For every open position on every run, evaluate exits regardless of the current price and regardless of the 15–70¢ entry band or time-to-close filter. Use the held side's current best bid from the live scan/orderbook, requiring a present, non-crossed quote when available. Exit when that bid reaches halfway from held-side postPrice toward held-side prePrice: exitPrice=postPrice+0.5×(prePrice−postPrice). Also exit when bid is at least 15¢ below VWAP entry. These halfway-reversion and -15¢ stop rules apply at any held-position price, including prices above 70¢ or below 15¢; entry conditions never gate exits. Never average down. Cancel working entries when signals disappear, markets become ineligible, or two markets would be exceeded. Do not submit after close; unsold positions settle normally. This intentionally uses Kalshi trade-price behavior as a paper-learning proxy rather than direct CF Benchmarks BRTI data and may disagree with settlement. Do not force trades.