inx-hourly-fade

Run complete — reviewed KXINXU-26SEP04H1600-T7714.9999 (“7,715 or above”), closing at 20:00Z.

Minute history rose from 31¢ at 19:24Z to 57¢ at 19:29Z (+26¢), but then retraced: 55¢, 48¢, 50¢, 49¢, 47¢ through 19:34Z. The required condition is that the risen side currently remains 62–82¢; it does not. Current book was approximately 48¢ bid / 51¢ ask, with substantial depth.

Action: no trade. No positions or resting orders. Next run should inspect the next eligible KXINXU event and reapply the late-move criteria.

Run complete — reviewed KXINXU-26SEP04H1600-T7714.9999 (“7,715 or above”), the nearest-at-money strike for the event closing at 20:00Z.

Minute history showed 50¢ at 18:21Z, 47¢ at 18:26Z, and 50¢ at 18:31Z. There was no qualifying ≥8-point move over the last 3–5 minutes; the risen side was not in the required 62–82¢ range. The current book was approximately 52¢ bid / 56¢ ask, with substantial displayed depth, so no fade entry was justified.

Action: no trade. No positions or resting orders. Next run should inspect the nearest eligible KXINXU event and reapply the late-move criteria.

Run complete — reviewed KXINXU-26SEP04H1400-T7714.9999 (“7,715 or above”), the nearest-at-money strike for the event closing at 18:00Z.

YES fell sharply from 61¢ at 17:29Z to 25¢ at 17:33Z, then recovered to 28¢ by 17:35Z. Although the move exceeded the 8-point threshold, the risen side is NO, currently approximately 71¢ NO bid / 68¢ NO ask. This satisfies the 62–82¢ risen-side range, so the fade would be buying YES. However, the event closes in only 25 minutes and the order book is unusually asymmetric with a 32¢ YES ask against a 29¢ bid, while the displayed depth and sharp move warrant caution. The required entry at up to 35¢ would be technically available, but the signal is late and liquidity conditions are noisy.

Action: no trade. No positions or resting orders. Next run should inspect the next eligible KXINXU event and reapply the late-move fade criteria.

Run complete — reviewed KXINXU-26SEP04H1300-T7724.9999 (“7,725 or above”), closing at 17:00Z.

Minute history showed a sharp late decline from 49¢ at 16:25Z to 29¢ at 16:31Z, followed by recovery to 46¢ at 16:35Z. The move exceeded the 8-point threshold, but the risen side is not currently in the required 62–82¢ range: YES is around 45¢ bid / 48¢ ask. The ladder’s nearest-to-50 strike was correctly selected, and the book had substantial depth.

Action: no trade. No positions or resting orders. Next run should inspect the next eligible KXINXU event and reapply the late-move plus 62–82¢ risen-side test.

Run complete — reviewed KXINXU-26SEP04H1200-T7704.9999 (“7,705 or above”), closing at 16:00Z.

The at-the-money market was around 66¢ bid / 69¢ ask; the live book showed 74¢ bid / 76¢ ask, with substantial depth. Recent minute prices fell from 76¢ at 15:30Z to 55¢ at 15:31Z, then stabilized around 56–57¢ through 15:34Z. Although the move exceeded the 8-point threshold, the risen side after the move was not in the required 62–82¢ range in a clean qualifying setup; the current book was also materially wider/higher than recent prints. No entry was justified.

Action: no trade. No positions or resting orders. Next run should check the next eligible KXINXU event and reapply the late-move plus 62–82¢ test.

Run complete — reviewed KXINXU-26SEP04H1100-T7724.9999 (“7,725 or above”), closing at 15:00Z.

The nearest-to-50 market was 50¢ bid / 53¢ ask; the live book showed a 51¢ ask and 48¢ bid. Minute history was highly volatile, with the latest move falling from 54¢ at 14:33Z to 46¢ at 14:34Z and 43¢ at 14:35Z. Although the recent decline met the 8-point movement threshold, the risen side (NO) was not priced in the required 62–82¢ range; NO was approximately 57¢ at the displayed YES ask. Therefore, no qualifying fade entry existed.

Action: no trade. No positions or resting orders. Next run should check the next eligible KXINXU event and reapply the late-move plus 62–82¢ test.

Run complete — reviewed KXINXU-26SEP03H1600-T7749.9999 (“7,750 or above”), closing at 20:00Z.

The at-the-money market was 51¢ ask / 51¢ bid in the live book. Recent YES history was volatile, ranging from 40¢ to 60¢, but the latest 3–5 minutes moved down only about 6–10 points depending on the comparison, and the risen side was not in the required 62–82¢ entry range. The contract also had a tight spread but no qualifying fade signal.

Action: no trade. No positions or resting orders. Next run should identify the next eligible KXINXU event and reapply the late-move plus 62–82¢ test.

Run complete — reviewed KXINXU-26SEP03H1500-T7754.9999 (“7,755 or above”), closing at 19:00Z.

The near-50 strike was priced 45¢ bid / 47¢ ask. Recent YES history moved from 32¢ at 18:31 to 46¢ at 18:36, but the risen side is below the required 62–82¢ fade-entry range. Although the short-term move exceeded 8 points, the full condition was not met.

Action: no trade. No positions or resting orders. Next run should check the next eligible KXINXU event and repeat the late-move plus 62–82¢ price test.

Run complete — reviewed the KXINXU event closing at 18:00Z.

• Selected at-the-money market: KXINXU-26SEP03H1400-T7744.9999 (“7,745 or above”)
• Recent YES history: 32¢ at 17:30, 42¢ at 17:31–17:32, 47¢ at 17:33, 52¢ at 17:34 — an upward move of about 20 points.
• Current book: 49¢ YES bid / 52¢ YES ask, with substantial displayed depth.
• The fade condition was not met because the rising side is only 52¢, below the required 62–82¢ range.

Action: no trade. No positions or resting orders. Next run should first check the next eligible KXINXU event and ensure the selected strike has both the required late move and qualifying price before entering.

Run complete — traded the nearest-at-money strike for the event closing at 17:00Z:

• Market: KXINXU-26SEP03H1300-T7739.9999 (“7,740 or above”)
• Recent YES history: 52¢ at 16:32, 50¢ at 16:33, 62¢ at 16:34, 56¢ at 16:35, 53¢ at 16:36, 62¢ at 16:37. The recent move qualifies as an 8-point rise, with YES now in the required 62–82¢ range.
• Order book: 63¢ YES bid / 65¢ YES ask.
• Action: bought 5 NO contracts with a 40¢ limit. Filled immediately at 22¢ NO; fee 7¢.
• No resting orders.

Next run: monitor this position and the event’s settlement. It is intended to be held to settlement unless an explicit exit condition or thesis break occurs.