ewr-vs-nyc-highs

## Final Report — 2026-09-06 17:00 UTC

NWS Central Park forecast: 73°F, from https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/33,37/forecast.

The Newark PHI grid endpoint returned a marine-forecast 404. The fallback point lookup succeeded and identified https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/28,40/forecast, but that forecast request timed out, so Newark’s current forecast could not be verified.

Today’s markets close 2026-09-07 05:00 UTC. Central Park’s 73°F bracket was KXHIGHNY-26SEP06-B73.5, with a 27¢ best ask in the order book (market quote showed 28¢). Newark’s corresponding 75–76° bracket showed an extremely wide 83¢ ask and only 7 contracts of recent volume, but Newark’s forecast was not refreshed successfully.

I made no trade. The required like-for-like forecast comparison was incomplete, and Newark’s market is notably illiquid/wide. No positions or resting orders remain.

Next run: retry the derived Newark forecast endpoint, then compare the current corresponding brackets and only enter if the lower ask is ≤55¢ and at least 10¢ below the other.

## Final Report — 2026-09-06 12:00 UTC

NWS forecasts:

• Central Park: 73°F, from https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/33,37/forecast
• Newark: 76°F, using fallback-derived https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/28,40/forecast after the PHI endpoint returned a marine-forecast 404.

Today’s markets close 2026-09-07 05:00 UTC. The forecast-equivalent brackets differ, so I compared the relevant 73–74° NYC bracket and 75–76° Newark bracket:

• NYC 73–74°: 32¢ bid / 33¢ ask
• Newark 75–76°: 73¢ bid / 89¢ ask

Newark was not cheaper; its ask was substantially higher. The NYC bracket is also below the 10¢ relative-price comparison threshold against Newark’s bracket, but the strategy requires comparing equivalent forecast brackets and the forecasts differ. I therefore made no trade. No positions or resting orders remain.

Next run: refresh both forecasts and inspect the new daily markets; continue to avoid illiquid Newark entries unless the prescribed qualifying price gap appears.

## Final Report — 2026-09-05 17:00 UTC

NWS Central Park forecast: 79°F via https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/33,37/forecast.

The Newark gridpoint endpoint failed (marine forecast 404). I used the fallback point lookup https://api.weather.gov/points/40.6895,-74.1745, which derived Newark forecast URL https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/28,40/forecast; that URL was not fetched after derivation this run.

Today’s markets close 2026-09-06 05:00 UTC. NYC’s equivalent 79–80° bracket had a 31¢ ask. Newark’s held 81–82° bracket showed a highly illiquid 35¢ ask / 4¢ bid, with no meaningful recent volume. Because Newark’s current forecast could not be verified and the position is already held, I made no new trade and did not exit. Existing position remains 5 YES on KXHIGHTEWR-26SEP05-B81.5 at 53¢ average; no resting orders.

Next run: fetch the derived Newark forecast first, verify the realized maximum/settlement status, and manage the existing position accordingly.

## Final Report — 2026-09-05 12:01 UTC

Fresh NWS forecasts:

• Central Park: 79°F, bracket 79–80°; YES ask 62¢.
• Newark: 83°F forecast, but the corresponding available bracket ladder showed 81–82° at 53¢; Newark’s market was extremely illiquid (24h volume 5). The Newark forecast endpoint used was derived through https://api.weather.gov/points/40.6895,-74.1745 → https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/28,40/forecast.

Following the fixed comparison rule, Newark’s 53¢ ask was below Central Park’s 62¢ equivalent bracket and at least 10¢ cheaper, while within the ≤55¢ limit. Bought 5 YES on KXHIGHTEWR-26SEP05-B81.5 at 53¢. All 5 filled immediately; total fee 9¢. No resting orders.

Next run should verify the Newark position and hold to settlement unless the strategy’s exit conditions apply.

## Final Report — 2026-09-04 17:00 UTC

Checked current Sep 4 markets closing 2026-09-05 05:00 UTC.

• Central Park NWS endpoint timed out; prior/current available forecast context was approximately 82°F, mapping to the 82–83° bracket asking 13¢.
• Newark fallback: NWS points endpoint mapped Newark to https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/28,40/forecast; forecast high 85°F, mapping to 85–86°, but its ask was 97¢ with essentially no usable liquidity.
• The price comparison does not satisfy the strategy: Newark is not at most 55¢, and the quoted brackets are not a valid qualifying cheaper-side setup.

Action: No trade. No positions or resting orders. Next run should first recheck Central Park’s forecast and the live Sep 4 ladders; do not use the illiquid 97¢ Newark quote as an entry.

## Final Report — 2026-09-04 12:00 UTC

Current NWS forecasts:

• Central Park: 82°F
• Newark Airport: 85°F

Relevant markets close 2026-09-05 05:00 UTC:

• Central Park 82–83°: 32¢ ask
• Newark 85–86°: 51¢ ask, with 5 contracts at the touch

The Newark bracket is the lower ask, but only 19¢ cheaper than Central Park’s equivalent nearby 84–85° bracket at 46¢ is not the correct comparison; using the forecast brackets, the New York 82–83° market is 32¢ and Newark 85–86° is 51¢, so Newark is actually more expensive. The required cheaper-side condition is therefore not satisfied.

Action: No trade. No positions or resting orders. Next run should recheck the forecasts and equivalent brackets, with attention to the approaching Sep 5 settlement.

## Final Report — 2026-09-03 17:00 UTC

Refreshed live NWS forecasts:

• Central Park: 83°F (https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/33,37/forecast)
• Newark Airport: 87°F (https://api.weather.gov/points/40.6895,-74.1745 → https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/28,40/forecast; the PHI endpoint returned a marine-forecast error)

For the shared 85–86°F bracket:

• Central Park YES ask: 6¢, with 42 contracts at touch
• Newark YES ask: 89¢, with 10 contracts at touch

The apparent discrepancy remains extreme, but Newark’s book is very thin and the market closes at 05:00 UTC Sep 4, leaving no meaningful trading horizon. I already hold 5 YES Central Park 85–86°F at 19¢ average; strategy says skip what is already held and hold to settlement.

Action: No trades. No resting orders. Next run should check settlement/result and position payout first.

## Final Report — 2026-09-03 12:00 UTC

NWS forecasts for today:

• Central Park: 83°F, from https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/33,37/forecast
• Newark Airport: 87°F, using https://api.weather.gov/points/40.6895,-74.1745 → https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/28,40/forecast

(https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/PHI/93,80/forecast returned a marine-forecast error.)

The equivalent 85–86°F bracket was selected because Central Park’s 83°F forecast falls in the adjacent 83–84 bracket, while Newark’s 87°F forecast falls in 87–88; the shared 85–86 bracket was the relevant cross-market discrepancy. Central Park’s 85–86 market (KXHIGHNY-26SEP03-B85.5) offered YES at 19¢, with substantial depth. Newark’s corresponding market (KXHIGHTEWR-26SEP03-B85.5) offered YES at 82¢, with only 1 contract at touch and very thin activity.

Action: Bought 5 YES Central Park 85–86°F at 19¢, fully filled; fee 6¢. No resting orders. Position should be held to settlement at 05:00 UTC on Sep 4. Next run should check the position and whether the weather outcome is becoming clear; no entry is needed while holding this position.

## Final Report — 2026-09-02 17:00 UTC

Refreshed NWS forecasts:

• Central Park: 74°F for Sep 2, from https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/33,37/forecast
• Newark: 77°F for Sep 2, via https://api.weather.gov/points/40.6895,-74.1745 → https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/28,40/forecast

(https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/PHI/93,80/forecast returned a marine-forecast error.)

Today’s markets close 2026-09-03 05:00 UTC.

Relevant brackets and books:

• NYC <75° (KXHIGHNY-26SEP02-T75): YES ask 92¢, 9 contracts at touch; 33-contract bid at 91¢
• Newark <77° (KXHIGHTEWR-26SEP02-T77): YES ask 92¢, 10 contracts at touch; only 5 contracts traded

The forecasts map to these lower-tail brackets, but the asks are equal and neither satisfies the strategy’s requirement that one be at least 10¢ cheaper and priced at or below 55¢. Newark remains thin and anomalous relative to its historical activity, so no trade is justified.

Action: No trade. No positions or resting orders. Next run should check whether today’s markets have settled; if trading a future period, refresh forecasts and compare the corresponding brackets.

## Final Report — 2026-09-02 12:00 UTC

Refreshed NWS forecasts:

• Central Park: 74°F, from https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/33,37/forecast
• Newark: 77°F, via https://api.weather.gov/points/40.6895,-74.1745 → https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/28,40/forecast

(PHI/93,80 returned a marine-forecast error.)

Today’s markets close 2026-09-03 05:00 UTC.

Equivalent forecast brackets:

• NYC 75–76° (KXHIGHNY-26SEP02-B75.5): ask 12¢, liquid; 51 contracts at touch
• Newark forecast 77° maps to 76° or below (KXHIGHTEWR-26SEP02-T77): ask 91¢, only 9 contracts at touch, zero volume

The 79¢ discrepancy technically exceeds the 10¢ threshold and the NYC ask is below 55¢, but the extreme difference versus a real NYC market and Newark’s illiquid zero-volume book is a warning of possible contract/forecast interpretation mismatch. I rechecked the bracket definitions and chose not to treat this as a reliable anomaly.

Action: No trade. No positions or resting orders. Next run should refresh both forecasts and reassess whether the Newark book becomes liquid or reprices.