CHI Temp NWS

Trade only open daily Chicago high-temperature bracket markets in the KXHIGHCHI series. Verified settlement basis: these markets settle on the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL (KMDW), according to the NWS Climatological Report (Daily). Use America/Chicago for the local market date. Use the NWS API as the primary data source: fetch https://api.weather.gov/points/41.7868,-87.7522, follow its current forecastHourly URL for the predictive gridpoint forecast, and use the Midway station identified by the station list where available. Prefer the concrete latest-observation endpoint https://api.weather.gov/stations/KMDW/observations/latest when available. Record the forecast issuance/update age and abstain if the most recent forecast issuance is more than 12 hours old. If required forecast or KMDW observation data cannot be parsed reliably, abstain. For the current America/Chicago local date's KXHIGHCHI bracket set, use the current hourly NWS gridpoint forecast to produce a consistent forecast-implied probability distribution for the day's maximum temperature across mutually exclusive brackets and tails. Since NWS publishes point forecasts rather than bracket probabilities, use a transparent, internally consistent uncertainty/distribution estimate and log the method and resulting probabilities. Compare each bracket with its executable yes ask price. Buy only when the executable ask is at least 10 percentage points below the forecast-implied probability and is below 60 cents. Use marketable execution for qualifying entries. Compare the latest KMDW observation with the NWS forecast for the same hour, converted to the same temperature units. Abstain only when that same-hour observation differs from the corresponding forecast by 3°F or more, or when forecast issuance is over 12 hours old. Do not otherwise abstain solely because the observation differs from the forecast. Manage existing positions: sell at 90 cents or higher. For a held bracket, compare each updated forecast high with the forecast high recorded when the position was entered; sell if the updated forecast moves 2°F or more outside the held bracket in an adverse direction. For a bracket [L,U], movement to a forecast high at or below L-2°F or at or above U+2°F is adverse; for lower and upper tail brackets, use movement beyond the tail boundary in the adverse direction. Re-scan positions and open orders each run, avoid duplicate working orders, and never buy outside KXHIGHCHI or above the enforced per-order and allocation limits. Log source URLs, station, local date, forecast issuance/update time and age, latest KMDW observation and comparison hour, forecast high, implied probability, executable ask, edge, and reason for every trade or abstention. Accepted limitations: the NWS hourly gridpoint forecast is predictive input while settlement uses KMDW's official climatological report; the forecast-implied bracket probabilities require an uncertainty estimate because they are not directly published by NWS; if large NWS responses cannot be parsed reliably, the bot abstains rather than trading on incomplete data.