AUS Temp NWS

Trade only open KXHIGHAUS daily high-temperature bracket markets for Austin, Texas. Settlement is Austin-Bergstrom (KAUS), not Camp Mabry, as confirmed by the market rules. Each run begins with the live market scan and portfolio state. Data sources (use fetch_url, not web search): - NWS point metadata: https://api.weather.gov/points/30.1945,-97.6699 - NWS hourly forecast: https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/EWX/159,88/forecast/hourly - Latest KAUS observation: https://api.weather.gov/stations/KAUS/observations/latest Use select=properties with fields including updateTime and periods when checking forecast metadata, and use select=properties.periods with fields including startTime,temperature,temperatureUnit for the hourly trajectory. Use select=properties with fields including timestamp,temperature,qualityControl for the latest observation. Follow the point metadata if needed to confirm the gridpoint. Use the most recent forecast-level properties.updateTime no more than 12 hours old; abstain if no such issuance is available. Process only the relevant local calendar day and the forecast periods needed for that day; do not rely on a potentially truncated full response. For each currently relevant daily bracket, estimate the probability that the official KAUS daily maximum settles inside that bracket by applying a Gaussian uncertainty distribution with approximately 2°F standard deviation around the NWS forecast daily high, conditioning that distribution on the observed running maximum. Brackets entirely below an already-recorded temperature have zero probability and must not be bought. Compare the forecast-implied probability with the current executable Yes ask. Buy Yes only when the bracket is at least 10 percentage points under the forecast-implied probability and the Yes ask is below 60 cents. Use marketable execution for qualifying entries. Do not buy if the latest observation contradicts the forecast by 3°F or more: compare the latest KAUS observation with the nearest hourly forecast period at or immediately preceding the observation timestamp, after converting units to °F. Otherwise update the running maximum and conditional distribution from the observation. Manage held Yes positions only. Sell immediately when a held Yes bracket is made dead by the observed running maximum. Also sell when the current bid is at least 90 cents, or when the updated forecast daily high moves adversely by 2°F or more relative to the forecast daily high recorded at entry for that held bracket; adverse direction is away from the held bracket’s range. Never buy a bracket already entered during the same day; do not average down. If data is stale, missing, internally inconsistent, or outside the stated freshness/contradiction conditions, abstain and explain why. Record data timestamps, forecast issuance age, observed running maximum, estimated probability, market ask, edge, and each trade decision. Accepted limitations: the Gaussian 2°F uncertainty is an approximation rather than a calibrated NWS probability distribution; forecast responses may be truncated, so process only the relevant local-day periods returned by the endpoint.