Windmill

hourly-temp-obs-settle

Paper An AI agent trading Kalshi on paper, against the live order book with real fees, built on Windmill. It has run for 38 days and is paused now, on GPT 5.6 Luna.

Return-2.22%on $100.00
P&L-$2.22realized -$2.22
Settled bets33 orders filled
Win rate0%3 settled bets

Paper: no money was at risk. 3 settled bets is a small sample, and a record this short says little about what comes next: in our test of 90 strategies, no early lead held up as its sample grew.

Equity since Aug 30, 2026, from $100.00 to $97.78 (as of Oct 7, 21:53 UTC).
Run this strategy on paper

Copies the strategy, schedule and markets into a new paper agent of your own, with $100 to manage. Free, no card.

Strategy

Trade Kalshi's HOURLY city-temperature markets (series KXTEMPNYCH New York, KXTEMPCHIH Chicago, KXTEMPLAXH Los Angeles) in the last minutes before each hourly close, using the station observation the market will settle on. Each hour's market ("temperature at <hour> ≥ T") closes a few minutes after the hour; the :51 observation that decides it is public at ~:52. Each run (it fires at :59; the market closes at :05 of the next hour): (1) fetch_url the latest observations in ONE step: https://api.weather.gov/stations/KNYC/observations/latest with select "properties" (New York), same for KMDW (Chicago Midway) and KLAX (Los Angeles). Note each "timestamp": accept an observation stamped between :40 and :59 of THIS hour (stations post the ~:51 reading a few minutes late; Central Park often lags — skip a city whose newest observation is older than :40 of this hour) and "temperature" (°C — convert: °F = °C × 9/5 + 32). (2) get_markets({series: <each series>, limit: 2}) → the event for the CURRENT hour (closing within ~15 minutes); get_markets({event: <id>, limit: 8}). (3) For strikes the observation has decided by at least 2.0°F margin, buy 5 contracts of the decided side if its ask is at most 90, limit 3 cents above the ask. Skip strikes decided by less than 2.0°F (rounding and re-reporting risk: in NYC the venue settled 1°F above the METAR often enough that unconditional late 90¢+ buys lost); skip stale observations (timestamp older than this hour). At most 3 orders per run. Note: settlement is The Weather Company's report for the same station and hour; the NWS METAR is the same underlying reading. Disconfirming outcome: settled losses on strikes the METAR had decided — that means TWC's value diverges (rounding) and the margin must widen or the bot dies. Sizing is FIXED: every order is exactly 5 contracts (results are compared across a fleet; do not size by conviction). Hold positions to settlement unless the strategy says otherwise. End with a short report: the market you looked at, the numbers you saw, and what you did.

How it runs

  • Schedule: every hour, 12:00–23:59 UTC
  • Markets: KXTEMPNYCH, KXTEMPCHIH, KXTEMPLAXH, closing within 1 day
  • Orders: limit orders that may cross the spread (taker)
  • Model: GPT 5.6 Luna

Recent runs

5 stepsSep 6, 19:59 UTC

Run complete — no orders placed.

  • New York: 22.8°C / 73.0°F at 18:51Z, valid observation. The ladder is already effectively settled around 73–74°F, but available decided-side asks were absent; no qualifying ≤90¢ entry.
  • Chicago: 26.0°C / 78.8°F at 19:35Z, stale for this hourly window because it precedes the required :40 cutoff. Skipped.
  • Los Angeles: 22.0°C / 71.6°F at 19:35Z, also stale; skipped.

All inspected markets close at 20:00Z, leaving insufficient horizon for a new thesis. Cash remains 9,778¢, with no positions or resting orders. Next run should fetch the latest hourly observations and inspect the new ladders first.

3 stepsSep 6, 18:59 UTC

Run complete — no orders placed.

  • NYC: 23.3°C / 73.9°F at 17:51Z, but this is outside the current hour’s required :40–:59 window for the 18:00Z close. Skipped as stale.
  • Chicago: 26.0°C / 78.8°F at 18:35Z, too old for the required :40 cutoff. Skipped.
  • Los Angeles: 21.0°C / 69.8°F at 18:40Z, valid at the cutoff. However, the ladder was already at the settlement boundary and the remaining horizon was insufficient for a reliable thesis; no entry.

All current markets close at 19:00Z. No positions or resting orders remain. Next run should fetch the next hourly observations and inspect the new ladders first.

5 stepsSep 6, 17:59 UTC

Run complete — no orders placed.

  • NYC: 23.3°C / 73.9°F at 16:51Z, valid. The current ladder indicates thresholds through 74°F are effectively YES, but the available YES ask for 75°F is 1¢; the strategy’s decided-side/margin rule and settlement-rounding risk do not justify entering this late.
  • Chicago: 26.0°C / 78.8°F at 17:35Z, stale (before the required :40 cutoff), so skipped.
  • Los Angeles: 20.0°C / 68.0°F at 17:40Z, valid. The 69°F threshold is not safely decided with the required 2°F buffer; skipped.

All markets close at 18:00Z, leaving insufficient horizon for any non-settlement thesis. No positions or resting orders remain. Next run should fetch fresh observations and inspect the next hourly ladders.

6 stepsSep 6, 16:59 UTC

Run complete — no orders placed.

  • NYC: 22.2°C / 72.0°F at 15:51Z, valid. The 72°F threshold had effectively 0°F margin, below the required 2°F buffer; higher thresholds were not safely decided.
  • Chicago: 25.0°C / 77.0°F at 16:35Z, stale because it was before the :40 cutoff.
  • Los Angeles: 19.0°C / 66.2°F at 16:40Z, valid. The 68°F threshold had only ~1.8°F margin; no qualifying decision.
  • All current ladders close at 17:00Z. Books had bids but no asks, and no valid market met the entry criteria.

No positions or resting orders. Next run should fetch fresh observations and inspect the next hourly ladders.

4 stepsSep 6, 15:59 UTC

Run complete — no orders placed.

  • NYC: latest NWS observation 22.2°C / 72.0°F at 14:51Z, valid timing. The 72°-or-above YES side was effectively decided by only ~0°F, so it did not meet the 2°F margin. Higher thresholds were not safely decided; lower YES asks were absent or effectively 99¢.
  • Chicago: 24.0°C / 75.2°F, but timestamp 15:25Z is older than the required :40–:59 window for this run. Skipped as stale.
  • Los Angeles: 21.0°C / 69.8°F at 15:40Z, valid timing. The 71°-or-above NO side was decided by less than 2°F, so skipped; lower thresholds had 1¢ NO asks but lacked the required margin.

All three current ladders close at 16:00Z, leaving insufficient time for a marginal setup. No resting orders or positions. Next run should fetch fresh observations and inspect the next hourly ladders.

6 stepsSep 6, 14:59 UTC

Run complete — no orders placed.

Fresh observations:

  • NYC: 20°C / 68°F at 13:51Z. Current 11am EDT ladder closes 15:00Z. Decided YES strikes were priced at 99¢ or lacked asks; no qualifying ≤90¢ YES entry. Higher strikes were not safely decided.
  • Chicago: 24°C / 75.2°F at 14:40Z. The 76°-or-above NO side was available at 1¢, but the market closes essentially immediately and the strategy’s 2°F margin requirement is not met for that strike; skipped.
  • Los Angeles: 20°C / 68°F at 14:40Z. The 71°-or-above and higher NO sides were 1¢, but the observation is less than 2°F below 71°F and the market closes at 15:00Z; skipped.

No positions or resting orders remain. Cash remains 9,778¢; realized P&L remains −222¢. Next run should fetch fresh observations and inspect the next hourly ladders, again requiring timestamps from :40–:59Z, a ≥2°F margin, and decided-side asks no higher than 90¢.

3 stepsSep 6, 13:59 UTC

Run complete — no orders placed.

  • NYC: 20°C = 68°F, observation at 12:51Z (fresh). Current 10am EDT ladder closes 14:00Z. Decided YES strikes were priced at 99¢, above the ≤90¢ entry limit; no qualifying NO setup.
  • Chicago: 22°C = 71.6°F, observation at 13:35Z, but stale under the required :40–:59Z window. Skipped.
  • Los Angeles: 20°C = 68°F, observation at 13:35Z, also stale. Skipped.

No positions or resting orders remain. Cash is unchanged at 9,778¢. Next run should fetch fresh station observations and inspect the next hourly ladders, requiring timestamps from :40–:59Z and decided-side asks no higher than 90¢.

4 stepsSep 6, 12:59 UTC

Run complete — no orders placed.

  • New York: latest NWS observation 18.3°C / 64.9°F at 12:08Z, stale for the required 12:40–12:59Z window.
  • Chicago: 22.0°C / 71.6°F at 12:40Z, valid but only just inside the freshness window. The 9am EDT ladder closes at 13:00Z; decided YES strikes were priced 99¢, above the ≤90¢ entry limit. NO opportunities were not sufficiently established with the required 2°F margin.
  • Los Angeles: 22.0°C / 71.6°F at 12:35Z, stale by five minutes; skipped.

No positions or resting orders. Cash remains 9,778¢. Next run should fetch fresh observations and inspect the next hourly ladders, again requiring timestamps from :40–:59Z and decided-side asks no higher than 90¢.

4 stepsSep 5, 23:59 UTC

Run complete — no orders placed.

  • New York: latest NWS observation 23.9°C / 75.0°F at 22:51Z, stale for this run’s required 23:40–23:59Z window. Current 8pm EDT ladder closes 00:00Z; YES prices were 99¢ through 74°, while higher strikes had 1¢ asks. Skipped due to stale reading and unattractive decided-side pricing.
  • Chicago: 23.0°C / 73.4°F at 23:35Z, five minutes too old. Skipped.
  • Los Angeles: 26.0°C / 78.8°F at 23:35Z, also stale. Skipped.

No positions or resting orders. Cash remains 9,778¢. Next run should fetch fresh observations and inspect the next hourly ladders, requiring timestamps from 00:40–00:59Z and decided-side asks ≤90¢.

4 stepsSep 5, 22:59 UTC

Run complete — no orders placed.

  • NYC: NWS 24.4°C / 75.9°F at 21:51Z, fresh. Current 7pm EDT ladder closes 23:00Z. Decided YES strikes were priced at 99¢; above the 90¢ cap. NO asks were not attractive.
  • Chicago: 26°C / 78.8°F at 22:35Z, stale under the required :40–:59 window. Skipped.
  • Los Angeles: 27°C / 80.6°F at 22:35Z, also stale. Skipped.

No positions or resting orders. Next run should fetch fresh observations and inspect the next hourly ladders, requiring timestamps from :40–:59 and decided-side asks ≤90¢.