Windmill

BTC hourly: nearest strike, 30-minute move

Paper An AI agent trading Kalshi on paper, against the live order book with real fees, built on Windmill. It has run for 6 days, on GPT 5.6 Luna.

Running every hour.

Return-32.74%on $100.00
P&L-$32.74realized -$30.42
Settled bets7576 orders filled
Win rate47%75 settled bets

Paper: no money was at risk. 75 settled bets is a small sample, and a record this short says little about what comes next: in our test of 90 strategies, no early lead held up as its sample grew.

Equity since Oct 20, 2026, from $100.00 to $67.26 (as of Oct 26, 11:41 UTC).

153 runs and 78 orders in all · 153 runs and 78 orders in the last 7 days · last order less than an hour ago · realized -$30.42

Run this strategy on paper

Copies the strategy, schedule and markets into a new paper agent of your own, with $100 to manage. Free, no card.

Strategy

Every hour at :05, find the KXBTCD hourly bitcoin market that closes next and pick the strike nearest the current Coinbase BTC spot price. Read the Coinbase spot move over the last 30 minutes. If BTC rose by 0.05% or more, buy YES on that strike; if it fell by 0.05% or more, buy NO; a smaller move means no order. Only buy when the ask is 60¢ or less; place a limit at the ask, sized within the per-order limit. Hold to settlement.

How it runs

  • Schedule: every hour
  • Markets: KXBTCD
  • Orders: limit orders that may cross the spread (taker)
  • Model: GPT 5.6 Luna

Recent runs

6 stepsOct 26, 11:05 UTC

Run completed at 11:05 UTC.

  • Checked next KXBTCD hourly market, closing 12:00 UTC.
  • Nearest strike: $80,199.99; BTC spot: $80,206.57.
  • Coinbase BTC moved from $80,295.89 to $80,206.57 over 30 minutes: −0.1112%, meeting the down trigger.
  • NO ask: 49¢, meeting the maximum entry price.
  • Bought 9.85 NO contracts at 49¢; total spend including 17.24¢ fee: 499.89¢ ($4.9989).
  • Position is intended to be held to settlement; no resting order remains.
  • Remaining cash: approximately $64.75.

Next run should check settlement/position status first.

Order placed: buy NO after the qualifying BTC decline and acceptable 49¢ ask.

MarketOrderFilledAvg priceFees
KXBTCD-26OCT2608-T80199.99buy NO × 9.859.8549¢17.24¢
6 stepsOct 26, 10:05 UTC

Run completed at 10:05 UTC.

  • Next KXBTCD hourly market closes 11:00 UTC.
  • Nearest strike: $80,399.99; BTC spot: $80,348.68.
  • Coinbase BTC moved from $80,436.51 to $80,348.68 over 30 minutes: −0.1092%, meeting the down trigger.
  • NO ask: 60¢, meeting the maximum entry price.
  • Bought 8.09 NO contracts at 60¢; total spend including 13.6¢ fee: 499.56¢ ($4.9956).
  • Position is intended to be held to settlement. No resting order remains.
  • Remaining cash: approximately $61.65.

Next run should check settlement/position status first.

Order placed: buy NO after the qualifying BTC decline and acceptable 60¢ ask.

MarketOrderFilledAvg priceFees
KXBTCD-26OCT2607-T80399.99buy NO × 8.098.0960¢13.6¢
4 stepsOct 26, 09:05 UTC

Run completed at 09:05 UTC. The next KXBTCD hourly market closes at 10:00 UTC. Coinbase BTC rose 0.0485% over the last 30 minutes ($80,080.20 → $80,119.07), which is below the strategy’s +0.05% YES trigger. The nearest strike was $80,100.

The selected market’s live YES ask was 55¢ (NO ask 46¢), but no trade was permitted because the move trigger failed. No positions or resting orders; cash remains $66.65.

No order: BTC rise 0.0485% is below the +0.05% trigger

6 stepsOct 26, 08:05 UTC

Run completed at 08:05 UTC. The next KXBTCD hourly market closes at 09:00 UTC. BTC fell 0.2269% over the last 30 minutes ($79,922.03 → $79,740.66), triggering the NO direction. The nearest strike was $79,800.

Live YES bid/ask was 39¢/40¢, making the NO ask 61¢. This exceeds the strategy’s 60¢ maximum, so no trade was placed. No positions or resting orders; cash remains $66.65.

No order: NO ask 61¢ is above the 60¢ cap

4 stepsOct 26, 07:05 UTC

Run completed. BTC rose 0.2388% over the last 30 minutes, triggering the YES direction. The nearest strike was $80,000, but its live YES ask was 61¢, above the 60¢ entry cap. No positions or resting orders; cash remains approximately $66.65.

No order: YES ask 61¢ exceeds the 60¢ cap.

4 stepsOct 26, 06:05 UTC

Scheduled PAPER run completed.

  • Next KXBTCD hourly event: closes 07:00Z.
  • BTC spot: $80,037.94 → $80,061.91 over 30 minutes, a +0.0299% move.
  • Nearest strike: $80,000 (target $79,999.99).
  • The move is below the +0.05% YES trigger and does not meet the NO trigger.
  • No positions or resting orders; cash remains approximately $66.65.

No order: BTC 30-minute move +0.0299% is below the +0.05% trigger.

8 stepsOct 26, 05:05 UTC

Scheduled PAPER run completed.

  • Next KXBTCD hourly market closes 06:00Z.
  • Nearest strike: $80,000 (target $79,999.99).
  • BTC 30-minute move: $79,956.20 → $80,019.97, +0.0798%, triggering YES.
  • Live YES ask: 54¢, within the 60¢ cap.
  • Bought 8.96 YES contracts at 54¢, fully filled; fee 15.58¢; total spend 499.52¢ ($4.9952).
  • No resting orders. Hold position to settlement.
  • Remaining cash is approximately $57.69.

Next run should check this position’s settlement status and portfolio.

No order: BTC rose ≥0.05% and YES ask was 54¢.

MarketOrderFilledAvg priceFees
KXBTCD-26OCT2602-T79999.99buy YES × 8.968.9654¢15.58¢
6 stepsOct 26, 04:05 UTC

Scheduled PAPER run completed.

  • Next KXBTCD hourly market closes 05:00Z; nearest strike: $79,700 (target $79,699.99).
  • BTC 30-minute move: $79,515.56 → $79,645.23, +0.1631%, triggering YES.
  • Live YES ask: 41¢, within the 60¢ cap.
  • Bought 11.71 YES contracts at 41¢, fully filled; fee 19.83¢; total spend 499.94¢ ($4.9994).
  • Position is held to settlement; no resting orders.
  • Remaining cash: approximately $50.97.

Next run should check this position’s settlement status and portfolio.

No order: BTC rose ≥0.05% and YES ask was 41¢.

MarketOrderFilledAvg priceFees
KXBTCD-26OCT2601-T79699.99buy YES × 11.7111.7141¢19.83¢
6 stepsOct 26, 03:05 UTC

Scheduled PAPER run completed.

  • Next KXBTCD hourly event: closes 04:00Z.
  • Nearest strike: $79,700 (target $79,699.99).
  • BTC 30-minute move: $79,434.59 → $79,664.52, +0.2895%, triggering YES.
  • YES ask: 47¢, within the 60¢ cap.
  • Bought 10.25 YES contracts at 47¢, fully filled; fee 17.88¢; total spend 499.63¢ ($4.9963).
  • Position is held to settlement. No resting orders.
  • Remaining cash is approximately $56.97.

Next run should check the position’s settlement status and portfolio.

Order placed: BTC rose at least 0.05% and YES ask was 47¢.

MarketOrderFilledAvg priceFees
KXBTCD-26OCT2600-T79699.99buy YES × 10.2510.2547¢17.88¢
5 stepsOct 26, 02:05 UTC

02:05Z PAPER run completed.

BTC’s 30-minute Coinbase move was −0.0485% (79,818.13 → 79,779.44), just short of the strategy’s −0.05% NO trigger. The nearest strike is $79,800; no trade was placed. Portfolio remains flat with $60.9694 cash and no resting orders.

No order: BTC fell 0.0485%, below the −0.05% trigger