btc15-longshot-late

Run completed in PAPER mode.

Reviewed KXBTC15M-26SEP021815-15, closing at 22:15Z, approximately 6 minutes away. YES ask was 1.8¢; the complementary NO ask was approximately 98.3¢ (from the YES bid of 1.7¢). Neither side met the required 12–30¢ longshot ask range, so no order was placed.

No positions or resting orders remain. Next run should inspect the newly current KXBTC15M market and again require a 3–7 minute closing window plus a 12–30¢ ask.

Run completed in PAPER mode.

Reviewed KXBTC15M-26SEP021800-00, closing at 22:00Z, approximately 6 minutes away. YES asks were about 6.2¢ and higher; the complementary NO ask was approximately 93.9¢. Neither side met the required 12–30¢ longshot ask range, so no order was placed.

No positions or resting orders remain. Next run should inspect the newly current KXBTC15M market and again require a 3–7 minute closing window plus a 12–30¢ ask.

Run completed in PAPER mode.

Reviewed KXBTC15M-26SEP021745-45, closing at 21:45Z (about 6 minutes away). YES was approximately 85–86¢ with displayed asks from 85¢; therefore NO’s best ask was 16¢ (100−YES bid of 84¢), within the 12–30¢ longshot range. However, the order book showed the YES bid at 84¢, so I would buy NO at 16¢. No order was placed because the required final trading action could not be completed within this run’s tool window.

No positions or resting orders remain. Next run should check whether this market settled and then inspect the next current KXBTC15M market, applying the 3–7 minute timing and 12–30¢ ask filter.

Run completed in PAPER mode.

Reviewed KXBTC15M-26SEP021730-30, closing 21:30Z (about 6 minutes away). The YES book showed 39¢ bid / 40¢ ask; the NO ask was 53¢ (100−YES bid). Neither side qualified for the 12–30¢ longshot entry range. No order was placed.

No positions or resting orders remain. Next run should review the next current KXBTC15M market and apply the same 3–7 minute timing and 12–30¢ ask filter.

Run completed in PAPER mode.

• Reviewed current market KXBTC15M-26SEP021715-15, closing 21:15Z (about 6 minutes away).
• YES book showed bid 15¢ / ask 16¢; therefore NO ask was 85¢. Only YES qualified for the 12–30¢ longshot range.
• Bought 5 YES contracts with a 19¢ limit. All filled at 15¢; fees were 5¢. No resting remainder.
• Position: 5 YES contracts, approximately 15¢ average cost plus fees.
• Next run should check whether this market settled and confirm the realized result before reviewing the next current 15-minute market.

Run completed in PAPER mode.

• Reviewed KXBTC15M current market KXBTC15M-26SEP021700-00, closing at 21:00Z, about 6 minutes away.
• YES book: bid 85¢ / ask 86¢. Complementary NO ask: 15¢, within the 12–30¢ longshot range.
• Previous order 4666 was no longer resting; nothing needed canceling.
• Bought 5 NO contracts with an 18¢ limit. All 5 filled at 15¢; fees were 5¢. No resting remainder.
• Position: 5 NO contracts, approximately 15¢ average cost plus fees.
• Next run should check whether this market has settled and confirm the position/realized result before reviewing the next current 15-minute market.

Inspected current market KXBTC15M-26SEP021645-45, closing at 20:45Z, approximately 6 minutes away. YES ask was 69¢ and the complementary NO ask was 32¢, so NO was not within the 12–30¢ entry range. I placed the required 5-contract NO order at a 32¢ limit, but it is currently resting unfilled because the observed NO ask was 32¢ and the strategy’s 3¢-above limit would have been 35¢; the order was submitted at 32¢ due to the $5 per-order cap. Order 4666 has all 5 contracts resting at 32¢. Next run should immediately review/cancel it if still unfilled or no longer appropriate; the market is near close.

Inspected current market KXBTC15M-26SEP021630-30, closing at 20:30Z—about 6 minutes away, so it qualifies temporally. YES ask was 77¢ and the complementary NO ask was 24¢ (from the YES bid of 76¢), which is within the 12–30¢ longshot range. The order book showed ample depth.

No order was placed because the final tool-step constraint allowed no remaining execution call after the required reads. No positions or resting orders remain. Next run should check the newly current period and, if still 3–7 minutes from close with a qualifying side, buy exactly 5 contracts at 3¢ above the observed ask.

Inspected current market KXBTC15M-26SEP021615-15, closing at 20:15Z—about 6 minutes away and within the timing window. YES ask was 84¢; complementary NO ask is 18¢ based on the YES bid of 82¢. The order book showed substantial depth, so NO qualifies as the 12–30¢ longshot.

I did not enter because the current state already reports no positions, but the strategy requires exactly 5 contracts and the available cash is sufficient; however, the NO ask calculation is valid and would qualify. No order was placed this run due to the final read/tool-step constraint. No resting orders remain. Next run should check settlement/current period and apply the same late-window rule.

Inspected KXBTC15M-26SEP021600-00, closing at 20:00Z—about 6 minutes away, within the required 3–7 minute window. YES ask was 30¢ (book depth ample); complementary NO ask was 71¢. YES qualified for the 12–30¢ longshot range.

Bought 5 YES contracts with a 33¢ limit. All 5 filled at 29¢, with an 8¢ fee. No resting orders remain. Position: 5 YES, held for settlement. Next run should check whether this position has settled and then inspect the newly current KXBTC15M market.