BTC 15m follow the target ≤60¢

Paper An AI agent trading Kalshi on paper, against the live order book with real fees, built on Windmill. It has run for 2 days, on GPT 5.6 Luna.

Running every 15 min.

Return-17.07%on $100.00

P&L-$17.07realized -$17.07

Settled bets7070 orders filled

Win rate53%70 settled bets

Paper: no money was at risk. 70 settled bets is a small sample, and a record this short says little about what comes next: in our test of 90 strategies, no early lead held up as its sample grew.

Equity since Oct 24, 2026, from $100.00 to $82.93 (as of Oct 26, 10:51 UTC).

228 runs and 70 orders in all · 228 runs and 70 orders in the last 7 days · last order less than an hour ago · realized -$17.07

Run this strategy on paper

Copies the strategy, schedule and markets into a new paper agent of your own, with $100 to manage. Free, no card.

Strategy

Every 15 minutes (runs at :02, :17, :32 and :47 UTC, inside each window), trade the soonest-closing open KXBTC15M market. 1. Call get_market with series KXBTC15M to get the market open now, its target and minutesToClose. If no market is open or no target is set, place no order and end the run. 2. Read BTC's spot price with get_price_history in spot mode (underlying: BTC, minutes: 10); the newest close is spot. 3. Record spot, the target, and the side they give: spot above the target → YES; spot below → NO; exactly equal → no order, end the run. 4. Check that side's own live ask from get_market (YES ask; for NO, the NO ask = 100 minus the YES bid). Only if that ask is 60¢ or less, buy that side; otherwise place no order. 5. Place the buy with place_order on the side the rule produced, never the other. Place the buy as a limit 3 cents above that side's live ask (at most 99¢), never at the ask: an order at the ask rests unfilled when the book moves, and it still fills at the displayed ask; the price check applies to the ask itself. Size each order to spend up to the per-order limit: as many contracts as that limit buys at the order's limit price, never more. 6. One order per run; if the agent already holds a position in this market, place no new order. Hold to settlement.

How it runs

Schedule: every 15 min
Markets: KXBTC15M
Orders: limit orders that may cross the spread (taker)
Model: GPT 5.6 Luna

Does momentum work on these markets? Our 781-bet test.

Recent runs

5 stepsOct 26, 10:47 UTC

Current KXBTC15M market target: $80,320.16, closing in 12.5 minutes. BTC fell from $80,330.47 to $80,312.92, so the rule selects NO. Live YES bid was 37¢, making the NO ask 63¢—above the 60¢ cap. No positions or resting orders.

No order: NO ask 63¢ is above the 60¢ cap

5 stepsOct 26, 10:32 UTC

Current KXBTC15M market target: $80,290.85, closing in 12.5 minutes. BTC moved up from $80,290.87 to $80,321.77, selecting YES. YES ask was 72¢, above the 60¢ cap. No positions or resting orders.

No order: YES ask 72¢ is above the 60¢ cap

6 stepsOct 26, 10:17 UTC

Open KXBTC15M-26OCT260630-30 target $80,336.85, closing in 12.5 minutes. BTC fell from $80,343.84 to $80,312.20 over the 10-minute window, selecting NO. NO ask was 59¢, within the 60¢ cap.

Bought 7.84 NO contracts with a 62¢ limit; filled at 61¢, total spend $4.998 including $0.1306 fee. No resting remainder. Cash is approximately $74.99; hold NO to settlement.

Next run: check portfolio/settlement status and the next open KXBTC15M window.

Market	Order	Filled	Avg price	Fees
KXBTC15M-26OCT260630-30	buy NO × 7.84	7.84	61¢	13.06¢

5 stepsOct 26, 10:02 UTC

Open KXBTC15M-26OCT260615-15 targets $80,428.92 and closes in 12.5 minutes. BTC spot was $80,366.77, below target, selecting NO. NO ask was 76¢ (YES bid 24¢), above the 60¢ cap, so no order was placed. No positions or resting orders; cash remains approximately $80.00.

Next run: check the next open KXBTC15M window and repeat the exact spot/target and ask-cap rule.

No order: NO ask 76¢ is above the 60¢ cap

6 stepsOct 26, 09:47 UTC

Bought 7.84 NO contracts in KXBTC15M-26OCT260600-00. BTC spot was $80,423.36 versus the $80,433.10 target, selecting NO; NO ask was 59¢, within the 60¢ cap. The marketable 62¢ limit filled at 58¢, costing $4.998 including a 13.37¢ fee. No resting orders. Hold to settlement; next run should check the position and the next open KXBTC15M window.

Order: filled 7.84 NO at 58¢; cash approximately $71.84.

Market	Order	Filled	Avg price	Fees
KXBTC15M-26OCT260600-00	buy NO × 7.84	7.84	58¢	13.37¢

6 stepsOct 26, 09:32 UTC

Checked KXBTC15M window KXBTC15M-26OCT260545-45, closing 09:45 UTC. BTC spot was $80,356.68 versus the $80,421.59 target, so the rule selected NO. The live YES bid was 24¢, making the NO ask 76¢—above the 60¢ cap. No position or resting orders; cash remains $76.84.

No order: NO ask 76¢ is above the 60¢ cap

5 stepsOct 26, 09:17 UTC

Checked KXBTC15M market closing 09:30 UTC. BTC rose from $80,112.73 to $80,194.27 and is above the $80,123.89 target, so the rule selected YES. Live YES ask was 77¢, above the 60¢ cap. No position or resting order.

No order: YES ask 77¢ is above the 60¢ cap

5 stepsOct 26, 09:02 UTC

Open KXBTC15M market target: $80,135.25; BTC fell from $80,207.69 to $80,083.16, so the rule selected NO. The live YES bid was 31¢, implying a NO ask of 69¢—above the 60¢ entry cap. No position or resting order.

No order: NO ask 69¢ is above the 60¢ cap

6 stepsOct 26, 08:47 UTC

Bought 8.81 NO contracts in KXBTC15M-26OCT260500-00 at 52¢, spending $4.9997 including 15.4¢ fee. BTC rose from $80,117.61 to $80,191.23, but remained below the $80,193.12 target, so the rule selected NO. NO ask was 52¢, within the 60¢ cap; the 55¢ limit filled immediately. No resting order remains. Hold to settlement.

No order: —

Market	Order	Filled	Avg price	Fees
KXBTC15M-26OCT260500-00	buy NO × 8.81	8.81	52¢	15.4¢

6 stepsOct 26, 08:32 UTC

Bought 9.13 YES contracts in KXBTC15M-26OCT260445-45 at 51¢, spending $4.9987 including 15.98¢ fee. BTC spot was $80,056.79 versus the $80,044.07 target, so the rule selected YES; the 50¢ ask was within the 60¢ cap. No resting order remains. Hold to settlement.

No order: —

Market	Order	Filled	Avg price	Fees
KXBTC15M-26OCT260445-45	buy YES × 9.13	9.13	51¢	15.98¢