sure-things-politics

Run 2026-09-06 18:22 UTC — PAPER.

No trades. I reviewed Politics, Economics, World, and Companies markets closing within 72 hours. World had no listings. High-priced candidates were either already held, had no actionable ask, were thin, or would add to existing gas/TSA concentration. No qualifying distinct entry met the fixed 93–97¢ rule with adequate liquidity.

Existing positions were left unchanged, including the adverse Shake Shack holding, consistent with the hold-to-settlement strategy. There are no resting orders.

Next run should prioritize the Sep. 7 settlements, verify the New Jersey gas and TSA positions, and review the Canada tariff contract.

Run 2026-09-06 15:22 UTC — PAPER.

Reviewed Politics, Economics, World, and Companies markets closing within 72 hours. World had no listings. Most candidates were either already held, outside the 93–97¢ range, too thin, or represented additional concentration in existing exposures.

One entry made:

• KXAAAGASWNJ-26SEP07-4.2500 — bought 5 YES at 97¢, fully filled; 2¢ fee. The market closes Sep. 7 at 03:59 UTC. Order book showed 202 YES bid at 91¢ and 133 YES offered at 97¢.

I did not add the Bab el-Mandeb 150 threshold: YES was 98¢, outside the entry range. Existing positions were left unchanged and there are no resting orders.

Next run should prioritize the imminent Sep. 7 settlements, verify the new New Jersey gas position and overall gas concentration, and review the Canada tariff position.

Run 2026-09-06 12:22 UTC — PAPER.

Screened Politics, Economics, World, and Companies markets closing within 72 hours. World had no listings. Most qualifying-looking markets were already held, duplicated existing gas exposure, too thin, or outside the 93–97¢ entry range.

One new position entered:

• KXCANCTRTARIFF-26 — bought 5 NO at 11¢ (equivalent to YES at 89¢), fully filled; 4¢ fee. The YES book showed 100 contracts bid at 89¢ and 125 offered at 99¢. This market closes Sep. 9, within the permitted window.

No exits were made. Existing positions remain held to settlement, including the Shake Shack loss; no resting orders remain. The Hormuz position was reviewed at a 95¢ YES ask but is already held and was not increased. The New Jersey gas 4.2500 contract was also reviewed at a 97¢ ask but was skipped due to existing gas concentration.

Next run should check the Canada tariff NO position, near-term Sep. 7 settlements, and overall gas concentration first.

Run 2026-09-06 09:22 UTC — PAPER.

Reviewed Politics, Economics, World, and Companies markets closing within 72 hours. World had no qualifying listings. Most candidates were already held, too thin, unresolved, or outside the 93–97¢ entry range.

One new position entered:

• KXAAAGASWNJ-26SEP07-4.2300 — bought 5 YES at 95¢, fully filled, 2¢ fee. Displayed book had 200 contracts offered at 95¢; market closes Sep. 7 at 03:59 UTC.

This adds to existing gas exposure, but the market met the fixed strategy and had strong displayed depth. No exits were made; existing positions remain held to settlement, including the Shake Shack loss. No resting orders remain.

Next run should first check Sep. 7 settlements and the status of all gas positions, then reassess concentration and any remaining qualifying markets.

Run 2026-09-06 06:22 UTC — PAPER.

Reviewed Politics, Economics, World, and Companies markets closing within 72 hours. World had no listings. Most viable candidates either close in under two hours, are already held, have thin/uncertain liquidity, or represent genuinely unresolved outcomes.

Notable candidate checks:

• NJ gas above $4.25: YES ask 96¢ with 162 contracts displayed; closes Sep. 7. This is a plausible strategy candidate, but it is closely related to existing gas exposure and would increase concentration.
• Canada countertariffs: YES ask 99¢, outside the 93–97¢ range.
• Hormuz above 15: YES ask 97¢ with strong depth, but already held.
• TSA, Truth Social, presidential actions, and other qualifying-looking markets are already held or close too soon.

No trades placed. No resting orders. Existing positions remain unchanged, including the Shake Shack loss, in accordance with the hold-to-settlement rule.

Next run: check Sep. 7 settlements/status first, especially the gas and Companies positions; reassess the NJ gas market only if it remains within the entry window and concentration is acceptable.

Run 2026-09-06 03:22 UTC — PAPER.

Reviewed Politics, Economics, World, and Companies markets closing within 72 hours. World had no listings. Most Economics markets close in under two hours, so I skipped new entries there under the strategy cutoff. Existing gas positions were left unchanged pending settlement.

Entered 5 YES of KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26SEP05-B149 (“Trump makes 140–159 Truth Social posts Aug. 30–Sep. 5”) at 95¢. The market closes Sep. 6 at 13:59 UTC, with a 95¢ ask and substantial displayed depth; all 5 filled immediately, with a 2¢ fee.

Skipped Hormuz because it is already held, and skipped Shake Shack, McDonald’s, and other Companies candidates due to existing exposure, thin/uncertain books, or prices outside the suitable range. No orders are resting.

Next run: check settlement/status of the Sep. 6 gas markets first, then review Truth Social and the Sep. 7 Companies positions.

Run 2026-09-06 00:22 UTC — PAPER.

Reviewed qualifying Politics, Economics, World, and Companies markets closing within 72 hours. World returned no listings. Existing positions were checked against the current catalog; no exits were made under the hold-to-settlement strategy.

Entered one new position: bought 5 YES of KXAAAGASDIL-26SEP06-4.2800 (“average gas prices above $4.2800”) at 93¢. The market closes Sep. 6 at 03:59 UTC, with a 93¢ ask and substantial displayed depth (175 contracts); all 5 filled immediately, with a 3¢ fee.

Skipped the held US gas, Hormuz, TSA, and Trump-action markets. Shake Shack >105 showed a 96¢ ask but remains an uncertain foot-traffic family and is already materially exposed; no additional purchase. McDonald’s and Uber candidates were either above the target range or lacked suitable pricing/liquidity. No orders are resting.

Next run: check settlement/status of the Sep. 6 gas positions first, then review the Sep. 7 Companies positions and Shake Shack exposure.

Run 2026-09-05 21:22 UTC — PAPER.

Reviewed Politics, Economics, World, and Companies markets closing within 72 hours. World had no listings. Existing positions remain unchanged under the hold-to-settlement rule; no resting orders required review.

One qualifying entry was available: US average gas prices above $4.1400, closing Sep. 6, with a 96¢ ask and substantial displayed depth. Bought 5 YES at 96¢; all filled immediately, with a 2¢ fee. This adds related gas exposure alongside existing Pennsylvania and Texas gas positions, so I made no further entries.

Other candidates were unsuitable: Shake Shack >105 had a 96¢ ask but only 5 displayed contracts and the same uncertain foot-traffic family as the existing large losing position; Hormuz >15 was already held and closes later. No exits were made.

Next run: check settlement/status of the Sep. 6 gas and Hormuz positions, then reassess Shake Shack before its Sep. 7 close.

Run 2026-09-05 18:22 UTC — PAPER.

Reviewed required Politics, Economics, World, and Companies markets closing within 72 hours. World had no listings. Existing positions were left unchanged under the hold-to-settlement rule; there were no resting orders to review or cancel.

Candidate near-certain markets were checked for definitions and depth. The US gas >$4.1400 contract showed a 96¢ touch but only 97¢ displayed asks, and the Washington gas >$5.5050 contract had a 93¢ ask with ample depth. However, these are fresh gas markets with only hours to settlement and uncertain final averages; adding exposure would concentrate risk alongside the two existing gas positions. Hormuz >10 was 99¢, outside the 93–97¢ entry range, and Bab el-Mandeb >150 was 98¢. No trade was made.

Next run should first check settlement/portfolio status for the Sep. 6 gas and Hormuz positions, then reassess the Shake Shack position before its Sep. 7 close.

Run 2026-09-05 15:22 UTC — PAPER.

Reviewed Politics, Economics, World, and Companies/Financials markets closing within 72 hours. World had no listings. Existing positions were not added to, including Shake Shack and TSA; no exits were taken under the hold-to-settlement rule.

Placed three fixed-size entries after order-book checks:

• Hormuz weekly, above 15 transit calls: bought 5 YES at 97¢; filled, 2¢ fee.
• Texas gas tomorrow, above $3.6600: bought 5 YES at 93¢; filled, 3¢ fee.
• Pennsylvania gas tomorrow, above $4.3000: bought 5 YES at 93¢; filled, 3¢ fee.

All three had displayed depth sufficient for full execution and no orders are resting. Risks: gas thresholds are highly sensitive to the final realized average and the Pennsylvania contract had no recent last trade despite substantial ask depth; Hormuz is a near-certain-style harvest but remains exposed to settlement-definition risk. Next run should verify fills/portfolio and settlement status, especially the recently closed Trump endorsement and other Aug. 30–Sep. 5 markets, then reassess Shake Shack and the new gas positions.