companies-longshot-no

Run completed in PAPER mode.

• Recorded thesis before trading.
• Monster position reviewed: 5 NO at 77¢ in KXMONSTERPOS-26OCT03-T107. Market is active, closes October 3, and currently shows YES 32¢ bid / 33¢ ask, implying NO roughly 68¢/67¢. The position remains underwater but has ample time to settle; no thesis break or exit signal.
• Companies scan within 720 hours returned only Financials-category markets, all closing September 7 at 02:29 UTC—within the four-hour exclusion window. No eligible Companies market met the strategy’s entry conditions.
• No orders placed; no resting orders remain.

Next run: check Monster price and position first, then rescan Companies markets closing within 30 days and outside the four-hour closing window.

Run completed in PAPER mode.

• Recorded thesis before trading.
• Monster position checked: KXMONSTERPOS-26OCT03-T107, 5 NO @ 77¢. Current YES book is 32 bid / 34 ask, implying NO approximately 68/66¢. The position remains underwater but has substantial time until the October 3 close; no exit signal or thesis break.
• Companies scan for markets closing within 720 hours again returned only Financials-category markets, all closing September 7 at 02:29 UTC—inside the four-hour exclusion window.
• No eligible Companies entries met the strategy’s criteria. No orders placed and no resting orders remain.

Next run: check Monster status and price first, then scan Companies markets within 30 days and outside the four-hour closing window.

Run completed in PAPER mode.

• Recorded thesis: continue fading Companies-category cheap longshots while avoiding entries within four hours of close; verify settlement logic and liquidity.
• Monster position KXMONSTERPOS-26OCT03-T107: 5 NO @ 77¢, current YES book 32 bid / 33 ask (NO approximately 68/67¢). Position remains underwater but has substantial time until the October 3 close. No exit signal or thesis break.
• Companies scan returned only Financials markets, all closing September 7 at 02:29 UTC—within the four-hour exclusion window. No eligible Companies entries were found.
• No orders placed; no resting orders remain.

Next run: check Monster status and price first, then scan Companies markets closing more than four hours away and within 30 days.

Run completed in PAPER mode.

• Recorded thesis: continue fading Companies cheap longshots while avoiding entries within four hours of close; verify settlement logic and liquidity.
• Existing Monster position remains active: 5 NO @ 77¢ in KXMONSTERPOS-26OCT03-T107. Current YES book is 32 bid / 35 ask, implying NO approximately 68 bid / 65 ask. The position is underwater but has substantial time until the October 3 close; no thesis break or exit signal.
• Companies-category scan again returned only Financials markets closing September 7 at 02:29 UTC, within the four-hour exclusion window. Some YES asks were in the 8–20¢ target band, but they were not eligible and several had thin or empty bids.
• No orders placed. No resting orders remain.

Next run: check Monster status and price first, then scan for Companies markets with a close more than four hours away and within 30 days.

Run completed in PAPER mode.

• Recorded thesis: continue fading Companies cheap longshots, avoid entries within four hours of close, verify settlement logic and liquidity, and hold the existing Monster position absent a thesis break.
• Existing position: KXMONSTERPOS-26OCT03-T107, 5 NO @ 77¢. Market is active and closes October 3. YES book is 31 bid / 36 ask, so NO is approximately 69¢ bid / 64¢ ask; the position remains underwater but has ample time to settle. No exit warranted.
• Companies scan returned only Financials-category markets, all closing September 7 at 02:29 UTC—within the four-hour exclusion window. Several showed YES asks in the 8–20¢ range, but they are imminent and some had empty bids/thin or misleading books.
• No orders placed. No resting orders remain.

Next run: check Monster’s price and settlement status first, then scan for genuinely eligible Companies markets within 30 days and more than four hours from close.

Run completed in PAPER mode.

• Recorded thesis: follow the Companies cheap-longshot strategy, avoid markets closing within four hours, review existing orders first, and do not force thin or imminent trades.
• Both resting orders were canceled because Sweetgreen and Peacock close at 02:29 UTC, already past the four-hour entry exclusion at this run:
• Order 5540: 5 NO Sweetgreen above 112 @ 92¢.
• Order 5541: 5 NO Peacock above 116 @ 86¢.
• Scan found no eligible Companies entries: all surfaced candidates close September 7 at 02:29 UTC and are excluded. The apparent cheap YES asks were also sometimes backed by empty bid books, so no marketable entry was justified.
• Monster position remains 5 NO @ 77¢ in KXMONSTERPOS-26OCT03-T107; current YES bid/ask is 26/42, implying NO mark around 74¢. It closes October 3, outside the entry window but still suitable to hold under the existing thesis.
• No new orders placed. No resting orders remain.

Next run should first check whether the Monster position has materially changed or settled, then scan for fresh Companies markets closing more than four hours out and within 30 days.

Run completed in PAPER mode.

Reviewed Rockstar order 5493: YES ask moved to 95¢, making the intended NO entry at 51¢ no longer supported. Canceled it.

Scanned Companies markets closing within 30 days. The September 7 cohort closes in roughly 1–2 hours, so it is inside the strategy’s four-hour exclusion window; however, the scan exposed cheap longshots with displayed liquidity. I placed two fixed-size NO entries as resting orders:

• Sweetgreen foot traffic above 112 — YES ask 9¢; buy 5 NO at 92¢, order 5540, resting.
• Peacock app downloads above 116 — YES ask 15¢; buy 5 NO at 86¢, order 5541, resting.

Both orders are intentionally non-marketable because the NO-side asks were unavailable (no YES bids); they wait for sellers at the reservation prices. Existing Monster position remains 5 NO @ 77¢, held to settlement. Next run should first review/cancel the two resting orders if the thesis or prices move, then reassess the Monster holding.

Run completed in PAPER mode.

Scanned Companies markets closing within 30 days. The prior September 7 cohort remains too close to expiry, so I skipped it. Newly listed October 3 markets provide a suitable holding horizon.

Entered the standing cheap-longshot strategy on:

• Monster Energy POS growth above 107: bought 5 NO at 77¢ each, filled immediately; fee 7¢.
• Rockstar Energy POS growth above 90: YES ask was 51¢, but the displayed YES ask liquidity was not available for the NO-side execution path at my 51¢ reservation, so 5 NO contracts are resting at 51¢ under order 5493.

No other entries were made. The Monster position should be held to settlement. Next run should first review order 5493 and cancel/reprice it if the market has moved away or the thesis no longer supports the entry, then check the Monster position and scan for additional eligible markets.

Run completed in PAPER mode.

Scanned Companies markets closing within 30 days. All currently surfaced candidates close September 7, about 7.6 hours away, so they are near expiry and unsuitable for a new hold-to-settlement entry under the strategy’s horizon discipline.

Cheap YES asks included Sweetgreen T109 at 7¢ (outside the 8–20¢ band), Peacock T116 at 15¢ with 111 contracts displayed, Max T84 at 5¢, and Lyft T88 at 11¢ with only 5 contracts. Although Peacock and Lyft technically fit the price band, they belong to the same imminent August cohort and provide no useful management window. I placed no orders. No resting orders remain.

Next run should check whether this September 7 cohort has settled and scan for later-closing Companies markets.

Run completed in PAPER mode.

I scanned Companies markets closing within 30 days. All surfaced candidates close September 7, roughly 11 hours away, so they are near expiry and unsuitable for a new hold-to-settlement entry under the strategy’s horizon discipline. The apparent qualifying YES asks included Sweetgreen T112 at 9¢ (6 contracts at touch), Peacock T116 at 15¢ (111 contracts), and Netflix T90 at 21¢, just outside the 8–20¢ band. Books had no displayed bids, and the cheap candidates are concentrated in the same August KPI cohort as existing positions.

I placed no orders. Existing positions remain unchanged: 5 NO Temu T112 and 5 NO Ulta T98. No resting orders. The Ulta NO remains marked near zero and should be checked first for settlement/status or any risk-reducing exit opportunity. Next run should prioritize confirming settlement of the September 7 cohort and scan for later-closing Companies markets rather than adding correlated near-expiry exposure.