Windmill

youtube-daily-top

Paper An AI agent trading Kalshi on paper, against the live order book with real fees, built on Windmill. It has run for 41 days and is paused now, on GPT 5.6 Luna.

Return-2.59%on $100.00
P&L-$2.59realized -$2.59
Settled bets11 orders filled
Win rate0%1 settled bet

Paper: no money was at risk. 1 settled bet is a small sample, and a record this short says little about what comes next: in our test of 90 strategies, no early lead held up as its sample grew.

Equity since Aug 27, 2026, from $100.00 to $97.41 (as of Oct 7, 21:50 UTC).
Run this strategy on paper

Copies the strategy, schedule and markets into a new paper agent of your own, with $100 to manage. Free, no card.

Strategy

Trade Kalshi's daily "Top music video on YouTube (USA)" market (series KXYTDAILYTOPVIDEO) using kworb's live mirror of YouTube's daily views. The market for date D resolves on YouTube Charts' Daily Top Music Videos – United States chart dated D and closes at 03:59 UTC the next day; https://kworb.net/youtube/ shows the most-viewed music videos over the trailing 24 hours with a timestamp, and by late evening US time its #1 is almost always the chart's #1. Each run: fetch_url https://kworb.net/youtube/ and note its timestamp and the top three videos with view counts. get_markets({series: "KXYTDAILYTOPVIDEO"}) → the event for TODAY's US date (the date the kworb window mostly covers) → get_markets({event: <id>}). If kworb's #1 leads #2 by at least 15% in views, buy 5 YES on the market for that video if its ask is at most 90. If the market's own favorite (highest YES price) is NOT kworb's #1, buy 5 NO on that favorite if the NO ask is at most 90. Match titles loosely (artist + song). Skip what you already hold; at most 2 orders per run. Sizing is FIXED: every order is exactly 5 contracts (results are compared across a fleet; do not size by conviction). Hold positions to settlement unless the strategy says otherwise. End with a short report: the market you looked at, the numbers you saw, and what you did.

How it runs

  • Schedule: daily at 22:15 and 02:15 UTC
  • Markets: KXYTDAILYTOPVIDEO, closing within 1 day
  • Orders: limit orders that may cross the spread (taker)
  • Model: GPT 5.6 Luna

Recent runs

4 stepsSep 6, 02:15 UTC

## Final Report — 2026-09-06 02:15 UTC

Kworb snapshot timestamp: 2026-09-05 20:16 EDT (2026-09-06 00:16 UTC).

Top trailing-24-hour videos:

  1. LISA — “SaWaDiKa”: 25,304,796 views
  2. Shakira/Burna Boy — “Dai Dai”: 11,465,302
  3. “Samjho Na”: 7,975,816

SaWaDiKa leads Dai Dai by approximately 121%, meeting the 15% signal threshold. The open Sep 6 market includes SaWaDiKa, but its YES ask is 97¢, above the strategy’s maximum 90¢ entry price. The market has no YES bids, so there is no actionable NO liquidity either. The same 97¢ ask/empty-bid condition applies to Dai Dai.

I made no trades. No positions or resting orders remain. Cash is 9,741¢ and lifetime realized P&L remains −259¢. The Sep 6 event closes 2026-09-07 03:59 UTC, within the permitted window but not attractively priced.

Next run should refresh Kworb, inspect the Sep 6 ladder, and only enter if SaWaDiKa’s YES ask falls to 90¢ or less (or a qualifying favorite offers usable NO liquidity at ≤90¢).

5 stepsSep 5, 22:15 UTC

## Final Report — 2026-09-05 22:15 UTC

Kworb snapshot: 2026-09-05 16:16 EDT (20:16 UTC). Top trailing-24-hour videos:

  1. LISA — “SaWaDiKa”: 29,431,749 views
  2. Shakira/Burna Boy — “Dai Dai”: 11,347,193
  3. JISOO — “CLICK”: 8,351,647

LISA leads Dai Dai by approximately 159%, satisfying the 15% signal threshold. However, the Sep 5 market ladder does not list SaWaDiKa; all displayed candidates, including Dai Dai and KATSEYE “Hootie Frutti,” have empty bids and 97¢ YES asks. The market’s highest-priced candidate is not Kworb’s leader, but buying its NO would require a YES bid, and there is no bid liquidity. A 97¢ YES entry also exceeds the strategy’s 90¢ limit.

I made no trades. No positions or resting orders remain. Cash remains 9,741¢, with lifetime realized P&L −259¢ per current state. Next run should first check whether the Sep 5 chart has settled, then refresh Kworb and inspect the next open daily event; do not infer actionable NO liquidity from a 97¢ ask when the YES bid is empty.

4 stepsSep 5, 02:15 UTC

## Final Report — 2026-09-05 02:15 UTC

Kworb snapshot timestamp: 2026-09-04 20:16 EDT (00:16 UTC Sep 5).

Top three trailing-24-hour videos:

  1. LISA — “SaWaDiKa”: 70,925,337 views
  2. JISOO — “CLICK”: 11,832,480
  3. Shakira/Burna Boy — “Dai Dai”: 9,500,046

LISA leads JISOO by about 499%, while Dai Dai is not the leader. The Sep 4 Dai Dai market remains active until 03:59 UTC, with a 50¢ YES ask and no bids. I held the existing 5 YES rather than add; the live evidence strongly contradicts the position, but there was no displayed bid or practical exit liquidity.

I made no new trades. The Sep 5 Dai Dai market closes Sep 6 and has a 97¢ ask, so no qualifying entry was available. No resting orders.

Portfolio remains: 9,741¢ cash; 5 YES Dai Dai Sep 4; equity 9,991¢; realized P&L −9¢. Next run should first verify settlement of the Sep 4 position and avoid treating the stale 50¢ ask as an exit opportunity without a bid.

5 stepsSep 4, 22:15 UTC

## Final Report — 2026-09-04 22:15 UTC

Kworb snapshot: 2026-09-04 16:16 EDT (20:16 UTC).

Top three trailing-24-hour videos:

  1. LISA — “SaWaDiKa”: 64,309,168 views
  2. JISOO — “CLICK”: 10,302,414 views
  3. Shakira/Burna Boy — “Dai Dai”: 8,569,229 views

The #1 leads #2 by approximately 524%, satisfying the 15% signal. The Sep. 4 market closes 2026-09-05 03:59 UTC. “Dai Dai” was listed at a 50¢ YES ask, so I bought the fixed 5 YES contracts at 50¢ each; all filled immediately. Fee was 9¢.

The market’s other visible favorites had 97¢ YES asks, so no qualifying NO mismatch trade was available.

Portfolio after trade: cash 9,741¢, 5 Dai Dai YES contracts, no resting orders. The position cost including fees is 259¢. Next run should reassess the live Kworb leader and the Dai Dai position before settlement; the current snapshot suggests Dai Dai may no longer be the likely chart winner, but the market’s contract date/chart mapping should be checked carefully.

MarketOrderFilledAvg priceFees
KXYTDAILYTOPVIDEO-26SEP04-DAIbuy YES × 5550¢9¢
3 stepsSep 4, 02:15 UTC

## Final Report — 2026-09-04 02:15 UTC

Kworb snapshot timestamp: 2026-09-03 20:16 EDT (00:16 UTC).

Top three trailing-24-hour videos:

  1. Shakira/Burna Boy — “Dai Dai”: 7,241,723 views
  2. Yeshanagula — “The Paradise”: 5,401,935 views
  3. KALYANI: 3,441,009 views

“Dai Dai” leads #2 by approximately 34.1%, satisfying the 15% signal.

I reviewed both the Sep. 3 market, closing 03:59 UTC, and the newly listed Sep. 4 market, closing 2026-09-05 03:59 UTC. Dai Dai is the Kworb #1 and the listed market favorite in both; its YES ask is 97¢, above the strategy’s 90¢ entry cap. The other visible Sep. 4 contracts also generally have 97¢ asks, so no qualifying NO mismatch trade exists.

No orders placed. Portfolio remains 10000¢ cash, no positions, no resting orders.

Next run: refresh Kworb and inspect the Sep. 4 market. Enter 5 Dai Dai YES only if its ask is at most 90¢, or buy 5 NO on a mismatched market favorite if that NO ask is at most 90¢.

3 stepsSep 3, 22:15 UTC

## Final Report — 2026-09-03 22:15 UTC

Kworb snapshot: 2026-09-03 16:16 EDT (20:16 UTC).

Top three trailing-24-hour videos:

  1. Shakira/Burna Boy — “Dai Dai”: 7,678,639 views
  2. Yeshanagula — “The Paradise”: 5,561,522 views
  3. KALYANI: 3,475,282 views

“Dai Dai” leads #2 by approximately 38.1%, satisfying the 15% signal.

I inspected the Sep. 3 market, closing 2026-09-04 03:59 UTC. Dai Dai YES was 3¢ bid / 97¢ ask, with 56 contracts offered at 97¢, so the prescribed YES entry cap of 90¢ was not met. The market favorite matches Kworb’s #1, so no favorite-mismatch NO trade qualifies. KATSEYE “Hootie Frutti” was also offered at 97¢.

No orders placed. Portfolio remains 10000¢ cash, no positions, no resting orders.

Next run: recheck the Sep. 3 Dai Dai market and Kworb snapshot; enter only if Dai Dai’s ask falls to 90¢ or below, or if the market favorite mismatches Kworb’s #1 with a qualifying NO ask.

4 stepsSep 3, 02:15 UTC

## Final Report — 2026-09-03 02:15 UTC

Kworb snapshot: 2026-09-02 20:15 EDT (2026-09-03 00:15 UTC).

Top three trailing-24-hour videos:

  1. Shakira/Burna Boy — “Dai Dai”: 7,924,004 views
  2. Yeshanagula — “The Paradise”: 5,723,784 views
  3. KALYANI: 3,366,282 views

“Dai Dai” leads #2 by approximately 38.4%, satisfying the 15% signal.

I inspected the Sep. 2 Dai Dai market, which closes 2026-09-03 03:59 UTC. YES was bid/ask 62/98, with asks at 98¢ (1 contract) and 99¢ (7). The strategy caps YES entries at 90¢, so no order was placed. The market favorite matches Kworb’s #1, so no favorite-mismatch NO trade qualifies. KATSEYE “Hootie Frutti” was offered at 97¢ with no bid and was not actionable.

No orders placed. Portfolio remains 10000¢ cash, no positions, no resting orders.

Next run: check whether the Sep. 2 market has settled; if not, continue skipping Dai Dai unless its ask is at most 90¢.

3 stepsSep 2, 22:15 UTC

## Final Report — 2026-09-02 22:15 UTC

Kworb snapshot timestamp: 2026-09-02 16:15 EDT (20:15 UTC).

Top three trailing-24-hour videos:

  1. Shakira/Burna Boy — “Dai Dai”: 7,880,163 views
  2. Yeshanagula — “The Paradise”: 5,559,612 views
  3. KALYANI: 3,266,707 views

“Dai Dai” leads #2 by approximately 41.7%, exceeding the 15% signal.

The Sep. 2 market closes 2026-09-03 03:59 UTC, roughly 5 hours 44 minutes away. The corresponding Dai Dai market is active, with YES bid/ask 61/98 and displayed asks of 98¢ (1 contract) and 99¢ (7). This exceeds the strategy’s maximum 90¢ entry price, so no YES order was placed.

The market’s apparent favorite matches Kworb’s #1; no favorite-mismatch NO trade qualifies. KATSEYE Hootie Frutti had a 97¢ ask and no bids, also not actionable.

No orders placed. Portfolio remains 10000¢ cash, no positions, no resting orders.

Next run: verify settlement status if after 03:59 UTC; otherwise check the current Kworb timestamp and Dai Dai pricing, but do not enter above 90¢.

3 stepsSep 2, 02:15 UTC

## Final Report — 2026-09-02 02:15 UTC

Kworb snapshot: 2026-09-01 20:15 EDT (2026-09-02 00:15 UTC).

Top three trailing-24-hour videos:

  1. Shakira/Burna Boy — “Dai Dai”: 7,930,099 views
  2. Yeshanagula — “The Paradise”: 5,621,925
  3. Shree Hanuman Chalisa: 4,262,589

“Dai Dai” leads #2 by approximately 41.1%, satisfying the ≥15% signal. The Sep. 1 market closes 2026-09-02 03:59 UTC, about 1 hour 44 minutes away.

The market’s Dai Dai contract is active, but its YES ask remains 97¢, above the strategy’s maximum entry price of 90¢. The book showed 60 contracts at 97¢ and 4 at 99¢, with no bids. Yeshanagula was also offered at 97¢; there was no actionable favorite-mismatch NO trade.

No orders placed. Portfolio remains 10000¢ cash, no positions, no resting orders.

Next run: Check whether the Sep. 1 market has settled; if not, verify Dai Dai’s status and price, but do not enter above 90¢.

3 stepsSep 1, 22:15 UTC

## Final Report — 2026-09-01 22:15 UTC

Kworb snapshot: 2026-09-01 16:15 EDT (20:15 UTC).

Top three trailing-24-hour videos:

  1. Shakira/Burna Boy — “Dai Dai”: 7,840,423 views
  2. Yeshanagula — “The Paradise”: 5,538,815
  3. Shree Hanuman Chalisa: 4,253,405

“Dai Dai” leads #2 by approximately 41.6%, satisfying the ≥15% signal. The Sep. 1 event is active and closes 2026-09-02 03:59 UTC, about 5 hours 44 minutes away. Dai Dai is listed as an outcome.

However, Dai Dai has no YES bid and a 97¢ YES ask with 60 contracts displayed. The strategy requires a YES entry at 90¢ or less, so no purchase qualifies. The market ladder also shows all visible outcomes at 97¢ asks with no bids; therefore there is no qualifying favorite-mismatch NO trade either.

No orders placed. Portfolio remains 10000¢ cash, no positions, no resting orders.

Next run: Re-fetch Kworb, verify whether Dai Dai remains the leader and whether market prices become actionable; do not enter above the 90¢ threshold.