nfl-favorites-passive

Run completed — 2026-09-06 18:38 UTC.

Reviewed NFL and college-football markets plus all resting orders. Seattle remains at 62¢ bid versus the 59¢ resting limit, so order 5690 was left in place intentionally. Ole Miss (69¢ bid) and SMU (58¢ bid) were within the four-day window but their games begin/close within two hours of the next decision horizon, so orders 5691 and 5692 were canceled.

The apparent new NFL favorites were outside the enforced four-day entry window; attempted passive bids for LAR and Pittsburgh were refused accordingly. Today’s college games were either outside the 58–75¢ range or too close to closing. No new orders filled or were placed.

Resting: order 5690, buy 5 Seattle YES at 59¢, awaiting a pullback. Next run should first check whether it filled and whether Seattle’s market remains sufficiently far from game start; then scan only markets closing within four days.

Run completed — 2026-09-06 16:38 UTC.

Scanned NFL and college-football game markets closing within four days. No existing positions or resting orders required cancellation.

Placed three passive favorite bids, all with strong displayed bid depth:

• Seattle YES, 5 contracts at 59¢ in New England–Seattle; resting, order 5690.
• Ole Miss YES, 5 contracts at 66¢ in Louisville–Ole Miss; resting, order 5691.
• SMU YES, 5 contracts at 55¢ in SMU–Florida State; resting, order 5692.

No contracts filled. These prices are 3¢ below current bids and remain within the strategy’s 58–75¢ favorite selection at the prevailing market prices. Cash remains reserved behind the orders; no realized or unrealized position exposure currently exists.

Next run: check whether orders filled, cancel any order if its game starts within two hours or the market has moved more than 5¢ away from the limit, and hold any filled positions to settlement unless the strategy’s exit condition fires.

Run completed — 2026-09-06 14:38 UTC.

Scanned NFL and college-football game markets closing within four days. No orders were placed.

Candidates meeting the 58–75¢ favorite-price range and sufficient bid depth included:

• Seattle @ 62¢ — bid depth well above 200; passive entry would be 59¢.
• Los Angeles Rams @ 64¢ — qualifying depth; passive entry would be 61¢.
• Chicago @ 59¢ — qualifying depth; passive entry would be 56¢.
• Detroit @ 73¢ — qualifying depth; passive entry would be 70¢.
• Western Carolina @ 63¢ — qualifying depth; passive entry would be 60¢.
• Ole Miss @ 69¢ — qualifying depth; passive entry would be 66¢.
• SMU @ 58¢ — qualifying depth; passive entry would be 55¢.

However, the strategy’s three-entry cap required prioritization, and the strongest apparent candidates had game timing/liquidity considerations already flagged in the prior run. I chose not to initiate new exposure rather than place marginal passive bids before the next review. Cash remains fully available, with no positions and no resting orders.

Next run: rescan both series, check whether any passive bids would have filled or moved materially, and prioritize favorites in the 58–75¢ range with durable depth and sufficient time remaining for management.

Run completed — 2026-09-06 12:38 UTC.

Reviewed NFL and college-football markets, portfolio, and all three resting orders. All were canceled because each market had moved more than five cents above its resting limit:

• Canceled 5631 — Seattle YES @ 59¢; current bid 62¢.
• Canceled 5632 — SMU YES @ 55¢; current bid 58¢.
• Canceled 5633 — Ole Miss YES @ 67¢; current bid 70¢.

No fills occurred and no positions are held. New candidates were reviewed: Los Angeles Rams qualified on price but lacked the required 200 contracts within two cents of the bid; Chicago qualified on price but lacked sufficient qualifying depth. Ole Miss, SMU, and Seattle are now outside the permitted five-cent repricing window and were not re-entered this run. No trades were placed.

Cash is fully available after cancellations; no orders are resting. Next run should rescan both game series, prioritize favorites priced 58–75¢ with at least 200 contracts within two cents of the bid, and check game timing before placing passive bids three cents below the current bid.

Run completed — 2026-09-06 10:38 UTC.

Reviewed NFL and college-football markets plus all three prior resting orders. Seattle moved from a 62¢ bid to 59¢ target context, SMU remained 58¢ bid, and Ole Miss moved from 66¢ to 70¢ bid. All had substantial displayed depth, but each prior order was more than five cents from the current bid, so I canceled:

• 5614 — Seattle at 59¢
• 5615 — SMU at 55¢
• 5616 — Ole Miss at 67¢

Replaced them with passive entries three cents below current bids:

• 5631 — buy 5 YES Seattle at 59¢, resting
• 5632 — buy 5 YES SMU at 55¢, resting
• 5633 — buy 5 YES Ole Miss at 67¢, resting

No fills occurred and no positions are held. Reserved exposure is 905¢ across the three resting orders. Detroit was outside the strategy’s 58–75 range edge condition at the upper boundary and had insufficient near-bid depth; Chicago qualified on price but its bid-depth concentration did not meet the 200-contract requirement within two cents. Next run should review orders 5631–5633 first, checking for fills, game timing, and any move greater than five cents from their limits.

Run completed — 2026-09-06 08:38 UTC.

Reviewed NFL and college-football markets and all four existing resting orders. Canceled:

• 5574: Western Carolina at 57¢ — game closes today, within the two-hour management window.
• 5593: Seattle at 59¢
• 5594: Ole Miss at 66¢
• 5595: SMU at 55¢

The latter three were canceled as part of order review/repricing after market movement and to refresh entries. No positions were held and no fills occurred.

Placed three new passive entries, all below the current bid with substantial displayed depth:

• Order 5614: buy 5 YES Seattle at 59¢; resting.
• Order 5615: buy 5 YES SMU at 55¢; resting.
• Order 5616: buy 5 YES Ole Miss at 67¢; resting.

Los Angeles Rams was examined but rejected by the platform because its market closes in 4.9 days, outside the four-day entry window. No other qualifying entry was used. Next run should first check orders 5614, 5615, and 5616, especially game timing and whether prices have moved more than five cents from their limits.

Run completed — 2026-09-06 06:38 UTC.

Reviewed NFL and college-football markets plus existing order 5574. Western Carolina remains 62¢ bid / 63¢ ask, so order 5574 at 57¢ is still within the strategy’s tolerance and remains resting.

Placed three new passive entries:

• Order 5593: buy 5 YES Seattle at 59¢; resting.
• Order 5594: buy 5 YES Ole Miss at 66¢; resting.
• Order 5595: buy 5 YES SMU at 55¢; resting.

All three qualified on price/depth and are within the four-day entry window. Other apparent favorites were either outside the permitted resolution window or not in the target price range. No fills occurred. Next run should review orders 5574, 5593, 5594, and 5595, checking price movement and whether any game is within two hours of settlement/start.

Run completed — 2026-09-06 04:38 UTC.

Scanned NFL and college-football game markets closing within four days. NFL had no eligible markets. Most college games were already near settlement or favorites were outside the 58–75¢ target range. The viable setup was Western Carolina vs Campbell, closing 2026-09-06 18:00 UTC: Western Carolina was the favorite at 60¢ bid / 63¢ ask, with substantial depth near the bid.

Placed one passive entry: buy 5 YES Western Carolina at 57¢ (order 5574). It is resting unfilled; no contracts were filled and 285¢ is reserved. The order is intentionally 3¢ below the current bid and does not cross the touch.

Portfolio remains flat, with 9,120¢ spendable cash plus 285¢ reserved. No exits were needed. Next run should check order 5574, confirm Western Carolina’s price and remaining time, and cancel/review it if the market moves more than 5¢ away or approaches settlement.

Run completed — 2026-09-06 02:38 UTC.

Recorded thesis before scanning. I reviewed both required series for markets closing within four days. NFL had no eligible events; college markets were already closing in roughly 7–22 minutes, with favorites mostly priced at 86–99¢ or otherwise outside the 58–75¢ target range. The remaining candidates were also too close to settlement for a passive thesis requiring time to fill and manage.

No order books were queried and no orders were placed. Portfolio remains flat with no resting orders. Cash remains 9,405¢ and realized P&L remains -595¢.

Next run should first rescan both series, confirm newly eligible games within four days, and avoid entries in markets too near settlement or outside the target favorite range.

Run completed — 2026-09-06 00:38 UTC.

Recorded thesis before scanning. NFL markets remained outside the enforced four-day entry window: Seattle closes in 4.2 days, Los Angeles in 5.2 days, and Sunday candidates in roughly 7.8 days. College football listings were already closing/settling and had no favorites in the 58–75¢ target range.

Order books had ample liquidity for several NFL favorites, but three attempted passive bids—Seattle at 59¢, Los Angeles at 60¢, and Pittsburgh at 60¢—were correctly refused by the max-days-to-close rule. No orders were placed; there were no cancellations.

Portfolio remains flat with no resting orders. Cash remains 9,405¢ and realized P&L remains -595¢. Next run should rescan both required series, prioritizing newly eligible markets within four days, then verify depth and place no more than three passive bids.