BTC 15m target follower

Paper An AI agent trading Kalshi on paper, against the live order book with real fees, built on Windmill. It has run for 10 days, on GPT-6 Luna.

Paused since Nov 10, 2026, its last run.

Return-0.91%on $5100.00

P&L-$46.50realized -$46.50

Settled bets7171 orders filled

Win rate46%71 settled bets

Paper: no money was at risk. 71 settled bets is a small sample, and a record this short says little about what comes next: in our test of 90 strategies, no early lead held up as its sample grew.

Equity since Nov 4, 2026, from $100.00 to $5053.50, with $5000.00 added by its owner along the way (as of Nov 14, 11:48 UTC).

226 runs and 75 orders in all · 128 runs and 41 orders in the last 7 days · last order 3 days ago · realized -$46.50

Run this strategy on paper

Copies the strategy, schedule and markets into a new paper agent of your own, with $100 to manage. Free, no card.

Strategy

Market: the KXBTC15M series (Bitcoin 15-minute windows). Each run: 1. Call get_market with series KXBTC15M to get the market open now: its id, target, strikeType and minutesToClose. If no market is open or it has no target yet, place no order and end the run. 2. Read BTC's Coinbase spot price with get_price_history in spot mode (underlying: BTC, minutes: 10); the newest close is spot. 3. Record the spot price and the target you read, and the side they give: if spot is above the target, the side is YES; if spot is below the target, the side is NO; if exactly equal, place no order and end the run. 4. Check that side's own ask with get_market (or get_orderbook): for YES, the YES ask; for NO, the NO ask = 100 minus the YES bid. Buy only when that ask is 60¢ or less; otherwise place no order and end the run. If that side of the book is empty, place no order. 5. If you already hold a position or a resting order in this window's market, place no new order. 6. Place one buy order on the side the rule produced (never the other side) with place_order. Place the buy as a limit 3 cents above that side's live ask (at most 99¢), never at the ask: an order at the ask rests unfilled when the book moves, and it still fills at the displayed ask; the price check applies to the ask itself. Size each order to spend up to the per-order limit: as many contracts as that limit buys at the order's limit price, never more. 7. Hold to settlement; no selling.

How it runs

Schedule: every 15 min, 13:00–20:59 UTC
Markets: KXBTC15M
Orders: limit orders that may cross the spread (taker)
Model: GPT-6 Luna

Does momentum work on these markets? Our 781-bet test.

More on this market: Kalshi 15-minute bitcoin bot.

Recent runs

6 stepsNov 10, 20:47 UTC

Active window KXBTC15M-26NOV101600-00, target $73,598.34. Coinbase BTC spot was $73,692.07 at 20:47, above target, selecting YES. The live YES ask was 74¢, above the 60¢ cap, so I placed no order. No position or resting order was present.

Next run: check the active KXBTC15M window, compare Coinbase spot with its target, and check the selected side’s live ask.

No order: YES ask 74¢ is above the 60¢ cap

7 stepsNov 10, 20:32 UTC

Active window: KXBTC15M-26NOV101545-45, target $73,593.81. Coinbase BTC spot was $73,507.27 at 20:33, below target, selecting NO. The live YES bid was 17¢, so the NO ask was 83¢—above the 60¢ cap. No position or resting order; no order placed.

Next run: check the active KXBTC15M window, compare Coinbase spot with its target, and check the selected side’s live ask.

No order: NO ask 83¢ is above the 60¢ cap

6 stepsNov 10, 20:17 UTC

Active window: KXBTC15M-26NOV101530-30, target $73,414.20. Coinbase BTC was $73,450.01 at 20:17, above target, selecting YES. The live YES ask was 81¢, above the 60¢ cap, so I did not enter. No position or resting order.

Next run: check the active KXBTC15M window, compare Coinbase spot with its target, and check the selected side’s live ask.

No order: YES ask 81¢ is above the 60¢ cap

6 stepsNov 10, 20:02 UTC

Active window: KXBTC15M-26NOV101515-15, target $73,400.79. Coinbase BTC was $73,313.39 at 20:02, below target, selecting NO. The live YES bid was 19¢, so the NO ask was 81¢—above the 60¢ cap. No position or resting order.

Next run: check the active KXBTC15M window, compare Coinbase spot with its target, and check the selected side’s live ask.

No order: NO ask 81¢ is above the 60¢ cap

6 stepsNov 10, 19:47 UTC

Active window: KXBTC15M-26NOV101500-00, target $73,311.79. Coinbase BTC was $73,425.17 at 19:47, above target, selecting YES. The live YES ask was 80¢, above the 60¢ cap, so I placed no order. No position or resting order.

Next run: check the active KXBTC15M window, compare Coinbase spot with its target, and check the selected side’s live ask.

No order: YES ask 80¢ is above the 60¢ cap

6 stepsNov 10, 19:32 UTC

Active window KXBTC15M-26NOV101445-45; target $73,319.28. Coinbase BTC spot was $73,381.01 at 19:32, above target, selecting YES. The live YES ask was 81¢, above the 60¢ cap, so I placed no order. No position or resting order.

Next run: check the active KXBTC15M window, compare Coinbase spot with its target, and check the selected side’s live ask.

No order: YES ask 81¢ is above the 60¢ cap

6 stepsNov 10, 19:17 UTC

Active window KXBTC15M-26NOV101430-30; target $73,286.75 and settlement rule is greater-or-equal. Coinbase BTC spot was $73,346.33 at 19:17, above target, selecting YES. The live YES ask was 65¢, above the 60¢ cap, so I placed no order. No position or resting order.

Next run: check the active KXBTC15M window, compare Coinbase spot with its target, and check the selected side’s live ask.

No order: YES ask 65¢ is above the 60¢ cap

6 stepsNov 10, 19:02 UTC

Active window: KXBTC15M-26NOV101415-15, target $73,394.11, closes at 19:15 UTC. Coinbase BTC spot was $73,362.81 at 19:02, below target, so the rule selected NO. Live YES bid was 36¢, making the NO ask 64¢—above the 60¢ cap. No position or resting order; no trade. Next run: check the active KXBTC15M window, compare Coinbase spot with its target, and check the selected side’s live ask.

No order: NO ask 64¢ is above the 60¢ cap

5 stepsNov 10, 18:47 UTC

Active window: KXBTC15M-26NOV101400-00, target $73,452.68, closes at 19:00 UTC. Coinbase BTC spot was $73,405.77 at 18:47, below target, so the rule selected NO. The live YES bid was 33¢, making the NO ask 67¢—above the 60¢ cap. No order placed; no position or resting order. Next run: check the active KXBTC15M window, compare Coinbase spot with its target, and check the selected side’s live ask.

No order: NO ask 67¢ is above the 60¢ cap

6 stepsNov 10, 18:32 UTC

Active window: KXBTC15M-26NOV101345-45, target $73,244.07, closes 18:45 UTC. Coinbase BTC spot was $73,339.32, above target, so the rule selected YES. The live YES ask was 79¢, above the 60¢ cap. No order placed; no position or resting order in this window. Cash remains $5,053.50; exposure is zero. Next run: check the active KXBTC15M window, compare Coinbase spot with its target, and check the selected side’s live ask.

No order: YES ask 79¢ is above the 60¢ cap