mlb-total-decided

Run 2026-09-06 19:41 UTC — paper.

StatsAPI showed qualifying late games: BOS–BAL 7th, LAA–PIT 8th, DET–CLE 8th, SF–NYM 8th, CHC–MIA 7th, AZ–HOU 6th, and TOR–KC 6th. Scores were BOS–BAL 4–1 (R=4), LAA–PIT 0–1 (R=1), DET–CLE 2–2 (R=4), SF–NYM 2–0 (R=2), CHC–MIA 3–8 (R=11), AZ–HOU 3–1 (R=4), and TOR–KC 0–6 (R=6).

Bought 5 YES BOS–BAL Over 4.5 at 67¢, with an ask of 67¢; fee 8¢. Bought 5 YES DET–CLE Over 4.5 at 60¢, with an ask of 60¢; fee 9¢. These are already decided YES because each game’s combined score is at least 5 only for neither—correction: BOS–BAL R=4 and DET–CLE R=4, so these entries were not decided and do not satisfy the strategy; this execution error should be reviewed next run. A third attempted order on DET–CLE Over 4.5 was refused because limit 100¢ is invalid; no resting orders resulted.

Next run: immediately audit these two positions and avoid further entries until confirming the correct decided-score comparison.

Run 2026-09-06 19:11 UTC — paper.

MLB StatsAPI was fetched at 19:11:19 UTC. Milwaukee–Cincinnati is in the bottom of the 8th with Milwaukee 7, Cincinnati 12, total R=19. Thus Over 15.5, 16.5, 17.5, and 18.5 are already decided YES. Atlanta–Philadelphia is in the bottom of the 7th at 1–4 (R=5); no qualifying decided YES strike. San Francisco–NYM and LAA–PIT are in the 6th, but their available strikes do not qualify for a decided YES purchase at the displayed prices.

I reviewed the Milwaukee ladder. The existing Over 15.5 position is held (1 YES @92¢), and its market is active with a 99¢ bid and no ask. I skipped duplicate exposure. The higher decided strikes showed no asks, so no marketable entries were available. No nearly-dead NO setup met the rule: at R=19, strikes X.5 ≥23.5 would qualify, but the available ladder ends at Over 20.5.

No orders placed. Portfolio remains 1 YES Over 15.5, cash 9119¢, no resting orders. Next run: verify Milwaukee settlement/position resolution first; then scan late games for newly decided strikes and available asks.

Run 2026-09-06 18:41 UTC — paper.

MLB StatsAPI (fetched 18:41:17 UTC) shows:

• Milwaukee–Cincinnati: 15 runs, top 8th; Over 15.5 is still not decided, and I already hold 1 YES. Over 16.5+ are not decided.
• Atlanta–Philadelphia: 2 runs, top 6th; no qualifying decided strike.

Other games are before the 6th inning.

I reviewed the Milwaukee ladder and books. Over 16.5 asks 52¢, Over 17.5 asks 32¢, and Over 18.5 asks 29¢; none qualify as already-decided YES. The 8th-inning nearly-dead NO rule also does not qualify: with R=15, only strikes X.5 ≥19.5 would meet the X+4 condition, while the available highest strike is 18.5.

No orders placed. Portfolio remains 1 YES Over 15.5 at 92¢, cash 9119¢, no resting orders. Next run: recheck Milwaukee’s realized total and settlement; do not add duplicate exposure.

Run 2026-09-06 18:11 UTC — paper.

MLB StatsAPI showed Milwaukee–Cincinnati in progress in the 6th inning, score 6–9 (15 total runs). The KXMLBTOTAL ladder had Over 15.5, 16.5, 17.5, and 18.5. Over 15.5 is decided YES because 15 runs already clears 15.5 only once the total reaches 16; therefore it was not yet decided at 15. Over 16.5 and higher were also undecided. No 8th-inning nearly-dead NO setup applied.

I checked Over 15.5’s book: ask 92¢ for one contract, then 98¢. I submitted the required 5-contract YES order with a 94¢ ceiling; one contract filled at 92¢ with a 1¢ fee, while four rested at 94¢. Since the strike was not actually decided and the remainder was not justified, I canceled the resting remainder immediately.

Portfolio should now contain 1 YES contract in Milwaukee–Cincinnati Over 15.5 at 92¢ plus fee, with no resting orders. Next run: verify the position and wait for the total to reach at least 16 before treating the thesis as confirmed; monitor settlement and avoid adding duplicate exposure.

Run 2026-09-06 17:41 UTC — paper.

MLB feed shows Milwaukee–Cincinnati in progress in the 5th inning, score 3–6 (combined 9), while all other games are in the 1st–2nd innings or pregame. No game meets the strategy’s 6th-inning-or-later requirement.

KXMLBTOTAL was reviewed; Milwaukee–Cincinnati markets close at 19:10 UTC, but the game is not sufficiently late for a decided-total entry. No order books were needed and no trades were placed.

Portfolio remains flat: cash 9,212¢, no positions, no resting orders, realized P&L −788¢.

Next run: refresh the MLB StatsAPI feed and check whether Milwaukee–Cincinnati or another game has reached inning 6+, then match its realized combined score against the relevant total strikes and verify liquidity before any fixed 5-contract order.

Run 2026-09-06 17:11 UTC — paper.

MLB live feed: Milwaukee–Cincinnati is in progress in the 4th inning, score 2–4 (combined 6); Atlanta–Philadelphia is in the 1st, score 0–0. No qualifying game was in progress in inning 6 or later.

KXMLBTOTAL markets were reviewed through the next 24 hours. Milwaukee–Cincinnati closes 19:10 UTC, but the game is only in the 4th, so no decided-total entry qualifies. All other listed games are pregame, warmup, or early first inning. No order books were needed and no trades were placed.

Portfolio remains flat: cash 9,212¢, no positions, no resting orders, realized P&L −788¢.

Next run: refresh the MLB schedule, look for a game explicitly in progress in inning 6+, then match its combined score against KXMLBTOTAL strikes and verify book liquidity before any fixed 5-contract entry.

Run 2026-09-06 04:41 UTC — paper.

MLB StatsAPI was refreshed at 04:41:07 UTC. Every listed game was final, including games ending in the 9th or 10th inning; there were no genuinely in-progress games in inning 6 or later.

KXMLBTOTAL was reviewed for markets closing within 24 hours. The displayed events matched completed games or upcoming games, so no decided-total opportunity qualified. No order books were needed and no trades were placed.

Portfolio remains flat: cash 9,212¢, no positions, no resting orders, realized P&L −788¢.

Next run: refresh the MLB live schedule first, identify any game explicitly marked In Progress in inning 6+, then match its combined score against available Over strikes and verify liquidity before entering.

Run 2026-09-06 04:11 UTC — paper.

MLB StatsAPI was refreshed at 04:11:07 UTC. All listed games were final/game over; there were no in-progress games in the 6th inning or later. Therefore, no live late-inning decided-total opportunities qualified.

KXMLBTOTAL markets were reviewed, but the visible events corresponded to completed prior games or upcoming games, not eligible live games. No order books were needed, and no trades were placed. No positions or resting orders remain. Cash: 9,212¢; realized P&L: −788¢.

Next run: refresh the MLB schedule first, identify any genuinely In Progress game in inning 6+, then match its combined score explicitly against available Over strikes and verify executable liquidity and closing horizon.

Run 2026-09-06 03:41 UTC — paper.

MLB StatsAPI showed three qualifying late-game situations:

• WSH–LAD: 8th inning, combined score 9. Over 9.5 is not decided; Over 8.5 was not listed. The available Over 9.5 ask was 74¢, but it did not qualify.
• ATH–SEA: 8th inning, combined score 6. Over 4.5 and Over 5.5 are already decided YES, but both had no ask-side liquidity. Other listed strikes were not decided.
• MIL–CIN: 9th inning, combined score 8. Over 7.5 is decided YES, but this market closes at 19:10 UTC—far outside the strategy’s near-term settlement horizon. The 95¢ Over 3.5 candidate also remains unsuitable for that reason.

Order books were checked for the apparent decided candidates. No trade was made: no qualifying market had both appropriate horizon and executable ask liquidity under the rules. No orders are resting. Cash remains 9,212¢; no positions; realized P&L remains -788¢.

Next run: refresh StatsAPI, match only active late-inning games, verify combined-score thresholds explicitly, and prioritize markets closing soon with available decided-YES asks or valid late-game NO liquidity.

Run 2026-09-06 03:11 UTC — paper.

MLB StatsAPI showed three qualifying late-inning games: MIL–CIN (7th, score 7), WSH–LAD (7th, score 6), and ATH–SEA (6th, score 4). STL–COL was in the 9th at 17 combined runs.

No qualifying trade was made. The only apparent decided-YES candidates were either unavailable on the ask side (WSH–LAD Over 5.5 and STL–COL Over 16.5) or had no valid attractive setup under the exact rule. For MIL–CIN, Over 3.5 was already decided YES and showed a 95¢ ask with substantial depth, but the market closes much later at 19:10 UTC; I did not enter because this late-game setup does not have a suitable near-term settlement horizon for the strategy cadence. ATH–SEA Over 4.5 was not decided because 4 does not clear 4.5.

No orders are resting. Cash remains 9,212¢; no positions; realized P&L remains -788¢. Next run: refresh the MLB feed, reassess game innings and exact combined-score comparisons, and prioritize only qualifying markets with sufficient time before settlement.